NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
88.9%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
11.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 19.2 REB 3.7 AST 6.7 3PM 2.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 19.2 REB 5.8 AST 8.1 3PM 1.3
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PTS 14.6 REB 4.3 AST 2.6 3PM 2.6
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PTS 12.5 REB 5.8 AST 2.1 3PM 2.4
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PTS 26.2 REB 11.6 AST 3.9 3PM 2.0
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AWAY Denver Nuggets
PTS 10.0 REB 4.3 AST 2.5 3PM 1.0
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PTS 5.2 REB 3.2 AST 2.2 3PM 1.3
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PTS 8.9 REB 3.0 AST 1.6 3PM 1.6
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PTS 11.7 REB 3.9 AST 1.2 3PM 2.0
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PTS 26.1 REB 11.7 AST 9.2 3PM 1.3
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.1
DR
112.7
PTS
18.5
VS
Bruce Brown
OR
109.0
DR
117.2
PTS
7.8
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.0
DR
111.3
PTS
16.7
VS
Tyus Jones
OR
72.1
DR
112.1
PTS
1.9
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
117.2
DR
113.6
PTS
13.8
VS
Julian Strawther
OR
98.3
DR
118.8
PTS
6.9
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.8
DR
111.5
PTS
11.2
VS
David Roddy
OR
98.5
DR
111.5
PTS
6.2
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
121.0
DR
99.4
PTS
25.0
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.1
DR
112.6
PTS
27.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win with an 88.9% probability. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Denver Nuggets: Bruce Brown, Tyus Jones, Julian Strawther, David Roddy, Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 224.73 points, which points to a fairly high-scoring, uptempo game given both teams' recent offensive outputs. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 13.5, meaning the home side is forecasted to have a 13.5-point edge on the scoreboard.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.7 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Denver Nuggets) 13.5 Most likely outcome: 13 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s power rating is roughly flat with a slight dip over the last five games, while Denver’s has been rising.

San Antonio Spurs

1726.4 -2.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Dallas Mavericks 1726.4 +1.8
2026-04-08 Portland Trail Blazers 1724.6 +4.0
2026-04-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1720.6 +4.5
2026-04-04 Denver Nuggets 1716.1 -12.3
2026-04-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1728.4 —

Denver Nuggets

1632.6 +37.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1632.6 +14.7
2026-04-08 Memphis Grizzlies 1617.9 +2.8
2026-04-06 Portland Trail Blazers 1615.1 +7.2
2026-04-04 San Antonio Spurs 1607.9 +12.4
2026-04-01 Utah Jazz 1595.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 139 120 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 112 101 +11
Philadelphia 76ers 115 102 +13
Denver Nuggets 134 136 -2
Los Angeles Clippers 118 99 +19

Denver Nuggets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 127 107 +20
Memphis Grizzlies 136 119 +17
Portland Trail Blazers 137 132 +5
San Antonio Spurs 136 134 +2
Utah Jazz 130 117 +13

Game Analysis

Both teams enter on three-game winning streaks. San Antonio has won 139-120, 112-101 and 115-102 — combining big scoring nights with holding opponents to around 107 points on average. Denver’s recent wins (127-107, 136-119, 137-132) show elite offense but slightly looser defense, with several games pushing the total well past 220. Looking at the projected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of about 118.42, a defensive rating near 109.70, and roughly 17.04 points made per starter — a balanced, efficient group. Denver’s projected five average an offensive rating near 102.60, a defensive rating around 114.44, and about 10.12 points made per starter — heavy scoring rests on Nikola Jokić (OFF 135.1, 27.8 points). Those differences favor San Antonio’s two-way balance.

Final Prediction

The Spurs’ edge comes from a deeper, more balanced starting unit and a stingier collective defensive profile. Key factor to watch: how Victor Wembanyama’s two-way impact matches up against Nikola Jokić’s elite offense — that matchup will likely decide the game.

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