NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
81.7%
VS

Minnesota Timberwolves

Away Team
18.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Denver Nuggets
PTS 22.3 REB 4.3 AST 6.6 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.2 REB 4.6 AST 2.3 3PM 1.4
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PTS 15.6 REB 5.9 AST 3.1 3PM 1.8
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PTS 12.7 REB 4.5 AST 2.2 3PM 2.0
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PTS 26.3 REB 11.3 AST 8.9 3PM 1.1
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 25.5 REB 4.5 AST 3.8 3PM 3.0
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PTS 11.7 REB 3.7 AST 3.3 3PM 2.9
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PTS 15.9 REB 4.8 AST 2.2 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 22.0 REB 6.7 AST 4.6 3PM 1.9
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PTS 11.0 REB 11.8 AST 1.7 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
125.0
DR
120.1
PTS
25.4
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
117.1
DR
115.4
PTS
28.8
SG
Christian Braun
OR
124.7
DR
118.4
PTS
12.0
VS
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.5
DR
114.7
PTS
12.2
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.4
DR
116.4
PTS
16.2
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.4
DR
115.2
PTS
14.8
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
124.4
DR
118.8
PTS
12.2
VS
Julius Randle
OR
116.8
DR
113.9
PTS
21.1
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.6
DR
112.6
PTS
27.7
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
130.6
DR
109.5
PTS
10.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets to win (81.7% probability). Expected starting fives — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić. Minnesota: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 232.94 combined points, signaling a high-scoring game and a brisk offensive pace for both teams. The expected spread of 9.61 (home − away) favors Denver by about 9.6 points, giving the Nuggets a sizable edge on their court.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.9 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Minnesota Timberwolves) 9.6 Most likely outcome: 9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s rating has surged over the last five games (+37.9), while Minnesota’s has climbed more modestly (+11.3).

Denver Nuggets

1645.8 +37.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-12 San Antonio Spurs 1645.8 +13.2
2026-04-10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1632.6 +14.7
2026-04-08 Memphis Grizzlies 1617.9 +2.8
2026-04-06 Portland Trail Blazers 1615.1 +7.2
2026-04-04 San Antonio Spurs 1607.9 —

Minnesota Timberwolves

1558.5 +11.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-12 New Orleans Pelicans 1558.5 +5.2
2026-04-10 Houston Rockets 1553.3 +12.2
2026-04-08 Orlando Magic 1541.1 -11.0
2026-04-07 Indiana Pacers 1552.1 +4.9
2026-04-05 Charlotte Hornets 1547.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 128 118 +10
Oklahoma City Thunder 127 107 +20
Memphis Grizzlies 136 119 +17
Portland Trail Blazers 137 132 +5
San Antonio Spurs 136 134 +2

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 132 126 +6
Houston Rockets 136 132 +4
Orlando Magic 120 132 -12
Indiana Pacers 124 104 +20
Charlotte Hornets 108 122 -14

Game Analysis

Denver arrives on a three-game winning streak — 128-118 over San Antonio, 127-107 over OKC and 136-119 over Memphis — showing they’re clicking on offense and finishing possessions efficiently. Minnesota is 2-1 in the last three, with high-scoring wins over New Orleans (132-126) and Houston (136-132) before a 120-132 loss to Orlando, a reminder their defense can be vulnerable in spurts. Both teams can put up points, but Denver’s recent form looks steadier. Looking at the projected starters, Denver’s five average an offensive rating of 126.22, defensive rating of 117.26 and 18.7 points made per starter. Minnesota’s projected five average an offensive rating of 118.68, defensive rating of 113.74 and 17.56 points made per starter. That frames this as Denver having the offensive firepower (led by Nikola Jokić’s 135.6 ORtg and 27.7 PPG) versus Minnesota’s slightly stronger defensive profile on paper.

Final Prediction

Denver’s offensive upside, recent surge in form and a projected 9.6-point home edge make them the clear pick. Watch how Minnesota’s defense — and Rudy Gobert’s interior presence — handles Jokić; that matchup will likely decide whether the Wolves can keep this within striking distance.

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