NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
92.5%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
7.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 26.8 REB 4.7 AST 6.7 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.4 REB 5.1 AST 5.5 3PM 0.7
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PTS 8.1 REB 3.8 AST 1.6 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 18.4 REB 9.6 AST 1.9 3PM 1.2
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PTS 8.4 REB 9.5 AST 2.9 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Phoenix Suns
PTS 8.6 REB 4.4 AST 2.0 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 27.2 REB 4.2 AST 5.9 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.4 REB 4.0 AST 2.5 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 19.3 REB 3.9 AST 1.8 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 11.1 REB 7.8 AST 1.1 3PM 0.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.8
DR
108.0
PTS
31.1
VS
Jordan Goodwin
OR
116.3
DR
112.1
PTS
8.7
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
117.5
DR
110.3
PTS
17.1
VS
Devin Booker
OR
119.4
DR
117.4
PTS
26.1
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.2
DR
111.2
PTS
8.3
VS
Jalen Green
OR
98.3
DR
114.5
PTS
17.8
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.6
DR
103.1
PTS
17.1
VS
Dillon Brooks
OR
108.0
DR
116.7
PTS
20.2
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
124.3
DR
102.6
PTS
9.2
VS
Mark Williams
OR
132.0
DR
110.5
PTS
11.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to win (92.5% probability). Expected starting five — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein. Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Jordan Goodwin, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 223.81 points, indicating a reasonably high-scoring game and a fairly up-tempo outing. The expected spread of 15.61 (home − away) heavily favors the Thunder at home, giving Oklahoma City a large advantage on the spread.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.8 Most likely outcome: 223 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Phoenix Suns) 15.6 Most likely outcome: 16 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s power rating has fallen over the last five games (down 18.5), while Phoenix’s has ticked up slightly (up 6.3).

Oklahoma City Thunder

1702.4 -18.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-12 Phoenix Suns 1702.4 -19.1
2026-04-10 Denver Nuggets 1721.5 -14.7
2026-04-08 Los Angeles Clippers 1736.2 +5.9
2026-04-07 Los Angeles Lakers 1730.3 +9.4
2026-04-05 Utah Jazz 1720.9 —

Phoenix Suns

1522.1 +6.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1522.1 +19.2
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.9 -8.6
2026-04-08 Dallas Mavericks 1511.5 +5.2
2026-04-07 Houston Rockets 1506.3 -9.5
2026-04-05 Chicago Bulls 1515.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 103 135 -32
Denver Nuggets 107 127 -20
Los Angeles Clippers 128 110 +18
Los Angeles Lakers 123 87 +36
Utah Jazz 146 111 +35

Phoenix Suns

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 135 103 +32
Los Angeles Lakers 73 101 -28
Dallas Mavericks 112 107 +5
Houston Rockets 105 119 -14
Chicago Bulls 120 110 +10

Game Analysis

Over the last three games Oklahoma City is 1-2, coming off a 128-110 win over the Clippers but suffering losses to Denver (107-127) and Phoenix (103-135) where they allowed big point totals. Phoenix is 2-1 in the same span with a blowout win over the Thunder (135-103), a narrow win over Dallas (112-107), and a heavy loss to the Lakers (73-101), showing some inconsistency on both ends. Looking at the projected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of about 121.5 and a defensive rating near 107.0, with starters combining for 82.8 points (16.6 per starter). Phoenix’s starters average an offensive rating of roughly 114.8 and a defensive rating around 114.2, with 84.5 points combined (16.9 per starter). Those numbers suggest Oklahoma City’s starting five have both the edge in offense efficiency and a clear defensive advantage, which should be decisive.

Final Prediction

The Thunder’s superior team ratings and home advantage underpin the strong pick for Oklahoma City (92.5%). Watch Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring (31.1 ppg) and how the Thunder’s defense handles Devin Booker (26.1 ppg)—those matchups will likely determine the margin.

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