NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers

Home Team
69.8%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
30.2%
2025-2026 Season

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 22.3 REB 3.5 AST 7.2 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 27.6 REB 4.4 AST 5.7 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 5.9 REB 3.6 AST 1.7 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.7 REB 8.7 AST 3.3 3PM 0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.5 REB 8.5 AST 1.6 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Toronto Raptors
PTS 13.1 REB 3.4 AST 4.8 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.8 REB 5.1 AST 4.1 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.7 REB 4.8 AST 2.7 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.1 REB 6.4 AST 5.0 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.2 REB 6.2 AST 1.5 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
James Harden
OR
124.0
DR
118.0
PTS
20.6
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.9
DR
114.5
PTS
16.4
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
121.0
DR
115.6
PTS
27.9
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
110.7
DR
114.8
PTS
21.4
SF
Dean Wade
OR
131.4
DR
114.8
PTS
5.8
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.4
DR
114.9
PTS
19.3
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
119.7
DR
112.5
PTS
18.1
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.9
DR
110.4
PTS
18.1
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
129.5
DR
111.8
PTS
15.3
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.0
DR
110.2
PTS
10.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win with a 69.8% probability. Expected starting five — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen. Expected starting five — Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 221.03 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with a fairly up-tempo look. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 6.31, which favors the home team — giving Cleveland roughly a 6.3-point edge in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 221.0 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Toronto Raptors) 6.3 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Cleveland’s power rating has ticked up over the last five games while Toronto’s has dipped slightly.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1613.6 +5.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-18 Toronto Raptors 1613.6 +7.8
2026-04-12 Washington Wizards 1605.8 +2.0
2026-04-10 Atlanta Hawks 1603.8 -12.7
2026-04-08 Atlanta Hawks 1616.5 +8.8
2026-04-06 Memphis Grizzlies 1607.7 —

Toronto Raptors

1526.4 -1.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-18 Cleveland Cavaliers 1526.4 -7.8
2026-04-12 Brooklyn Nets 1534.2 +4.7
2026-04-10 New York Knicks 1529.5 -7.9
2026-04-09 Miami Heat 1537.4 +9.5
2026-04-07 Miami Heat 1527.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Cleveland Cavaliers

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 126 113 +13
Washington Wizards 130 117 +13
Atlanta Hawks 102 124 -22
Atlanta Hawks 122 116 +6
Memphis Grizzlies 142 126 +16

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
L W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 113 126 -13
Brooklyn Nets 136 101 +35
New York Knicks 95 112 -17
Miami Heat 128 114 +14
Miami Heat 121 95 +26

Game Analysis

Over the last three games Cleveland is 2-1 (wins 126-113 and 130-117, loss 102-124), showing they can score in bunches but also have vulnerability (the 102-point effort came in the loss). Toronto is 1-2 (loss 113-126, win 136-101, loss 95-112), flashes of offensive explosion mixed with games where they struggled to finish. Both teams split a recent meeting with Cleveland taking the most recent 126-113 result. Looking at the projected starters, Cleveland’s five average offensive rating is 125.12, defensive rating 114.54, and average points made 17.54 — led by Donovan Mitchell’s 27.9 points and supported by James Harden’s playmaking. Toronto’s starting five average offensive rating is 117.98, defensive rating 112.96, and average points made 17.16 — Jakob Poeltl (OR 127.0) and Scottie Barnes (DEF 110.4) stand out on the interior and defensively. Cleveland’s higher average offensive rating and the scoring punch from its backcourt tilt the matchup.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s recent upward trend, superior starting-five offensive rating (125.12 vs 117.98), and the scoring duo of Mitchell and Harden give them the edge. Key factor to watch: how Toronto defends Cleveland’s pick-and-roll and interior finishing vs. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel