NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
83.7%
VS

Minnesota Timberwolves

Away Team
16.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Denver Nuggets
PTS 24.4 REB 4.3 AST 6.3 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.0 REB 4.5 AST 2.0 3PM 1.1
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PTS 15.7 REB 5.9 AST 3.1 3PM 1.8
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PTS 12.1 REB 3.9 AST 2.0 3PM 1.8
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PTS 24.9 REB 11.5 AST 8.7 3PM 1.2
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 26.7 REB 5.4 AST 4.6 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 12.4 REB 3.7 AST 3.6 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 16.7 REB 5.0 AST 2.6 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 21.2 REB 6.2 AST 4.2 3PM 1.8
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PTS 12.4 REB 11.5 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
124.8
DR
119.9
PTS
25.5
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
116.9
DR
115.3
PTS
28.7
SG
Christian Braun
OR
124.5
DR
118.1
PTS
12.0
VS
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.5
DR
114.7
PTS
12.2
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.8
DR
116.1
PTS
16.2
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.4
DR
115.3
PTS
14.9
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
123.8
DR
118.7
PTS
12.2
VS
Julius Randle
OR
116.6
DR
113.9
PTS
21.0
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.3
DR
112.4
PTS
27.6
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
130.5
DR
109.6
PTS
11.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets to win (83.7% probability). Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined 229.29 points, pointing to a reasonably high-scoring game and an uptempo affair where both offenses should find room to operate. The expected spread of 10.3 points favors the home team, giving Denver a sizable advantage and suggesting a comfortable win margin in this matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.3 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Minnesota Timberwolves) 10.3 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s rating trend is rising while Minnesota’s is essentially flat to slightly down.

Denver Nuggets

1653.1 +38.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-18 Minnesota Timberwolves 1653.1 +7.3
2026-04-12 San Antonio Spurs 1645.8 +13.2
2026-04-10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1632.6 +14.7
2026-04-08 Memphis Grizzlies 1617.9 +2.8
2026-04-06 Portland Trail Blazers 1615.1 —

Minnesota Timberwolves

1551.1 -1.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-18 Denver Nuggets 1551.1 -7.4
2026-04-12 New Orleans Pelicans 1558.5 +5.2
2026-04-10 Houston Rockets 1553.3 +12.2
2026-04-08 Orlando Magic 1541.1 -11.0
2026-04-07 Indiana Pacers 1552.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 116 105 +11
San Antonio Spurs 128 118 +10
Oklahoma City Thunder 127 107 +20
Memphis Grizzlies 136 119 +17
Portland Trail Blazers 137 132 +5

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 105 116 -11
New Orleans Pelicans 132 126 +6
Houston Rockets 136 132 +4
Orlando Magic 120 132 -12
Indiana Pacers 124 104 +20

Game Analysis

Denver enters this game on a three-game winning streak (wins 116-105, 128-118, 127-107) showing consistent two-way output against varied opponents. Minnesota is 2-1 over the same span but dropped the most recent meeting to Denver 116-105; their two wins were high-scoring affairs (132-126, 136-132), which highlights both offensive firepower and defensive looseness. Recent results favor Denver’s momentum and consistency. Looking at the expected starting units, Denver’s five average offensive rating is about 126.0, defensive rating about 117.0, and average points made per starter about 18.7. Minnesota’s projected starters average roughly 118.6 offensively, 113.8 defensively, and 17.6 points each. Denver’s higher offensive profile — led by Nikola Jokić’s 135.3 rating and 27.6 scoring average — should press Minnesota’s defense, while Minnesota leans on Rudy Gobert’s efficient 130.5 offensive and 109.6 defensive ratings to contest the paint.

Final Prediction

Denver’s upward form, superior average offensive rating, and scoring balance give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how effectively Minnesota uses Rudy Gobert to slow Jokić and whether Denver can exploit Minnesota’s defensive lapses to build a double-digit lead.

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