NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
57.6%
VS
Atlanta Hawks
Away Team
42.4%
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HOME New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.8
REB
3.9
AST
6.9
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
12.1
REB
7.3
AST
5.3
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mikal Bridges
PTS
11.7
REB
3.8
AST
3.3
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
15.3
REB
5.8
AST
2.3
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
20.1
REB
11.6
AST
4.2
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
19.5
REB
4.3
AST
4.5
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dyson Daniels
PTS
12.2
REB
7.5
AST
6.1
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
20.2
REB
4.1
AST
3.5
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Johnson
PTS
22.0
REB
9.9
AST
5.8
3PM
2.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
14.0
REB
7.5
AST
2.3
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.1
DR
116.6
PTS
26.1
VS
CJ McCollum
OR
112.5
DR
114.6
PTS
18.9
SG
Josh Hart
OR
120.1
DR
111.0
PTS
12.0
VS
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.9
DR
111.8
PTS
11.8
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.6
DR
113.9
PTS
14.4
VS
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
117.0
DR
116.0
PTS
20.8
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
118.2
DR
112.6
PTS
16.7
VS
Jalen Johnson
OR
115.5
DR
110.9
PTS
22.5
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.7
DR
109.9
PTS
20.1
VS
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.3
DR
111.9
PTS
15.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are favored to win (57.6% probability).
Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total is 224.47 points, pointing to a relatively high-scoring game and an uptempo affair if both teams hit their marks. The expected spread is 4.8 (home − away), giving roughly a five-point edge to the home team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.5
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Atlanta Hawks)
4.8
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
New York’s power rating has been rising over the last five games (+14.6) while Atlanta’s has been trending downward (-19.4).
New York Knicks
1624.0
+14.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.0 | +8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charlotte Hornets | 1615.3 | -12.8 |
| 2026-04-10 | Toronto Raptors | 1628.1 | +7.8 |
| 2026-04-09 | Boston Celtics | 1620.3 | +10.9 |
| 2026-04-06 | Atlanta Hawks | 1609.4 | — |
Atlanta Hawks
1566.7
-19.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | New York Knicks | 1566.7 | -8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Miami Heat | 1575.4 | -14.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1590.0 | +12.7 |
| 2026-04-08 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1577.3 | -8.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | New York Knicks | 1586.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New York Knicks
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 113 | 102 | +11 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 96 | 110 | -14 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 112 | 95 | +17 | |
| Boston Celtics | 112 | 106 | +6 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 108 | 105 | +3 |
Atlanta Hawks
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 102 | 113 | -11 | |
| Miami Heat | 117 | 143 | -26 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 124 | 102 | +22 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 116 | 122 | -6 | |
| New York Knicks | 105 | 108 | -3 |
Game Analysis
Over the last three games New York is 2-1, with wins over Atlanta (113-102) and Toronto (112-95) and a loss at Charlotte (96-110), showing they can both score and close out games. Atlanta is 1-2 in the last three, falling to New York (102-113) and Miami (117-143) but bouncing with a 124-102 win over Cleveland, suggesting offensive upside but defensive inconsistency.
Looking at the projected starting fives, New York’s group averages an offensive rating of 121.34, a defensive rating of 112.80, and 17.86 points made per starter — a strong offensive profile. Atlanta’s starters average an offensive rating of 115.84, a defensive rating of 113.04, and 17.84 points made per starter — similar scoring but a noticeable gap on offense overall. That offensive edge for New York helps explain the predicted margin.
Final Prediction
New York’s higher average offensive rating and a recent head-to-head win give them the edge in a game expected to be in the mid-220s. Key factor to watch: can Atlanta slow New York’s starters enough to erase that roughly five-point home advantage?
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