NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Boston Celtics

Home Team
77.7%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
22.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Boston Celtics
PTS 14.4 REB 3.9 AST 4.7 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 28.4 REB 6.8 AST 4.8 3PM 2.1
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PTS 24.5 REB 10.0 AST 5.8 3PM 2.8
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PTS 9.6 REB 4.6 AST 1.8 3PM 2.7
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PTS 9.0 REB 8.4 AST 1.4 3PM 0.1
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 25.4 REB 4.0 AST 5.5 3PM 2.7
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PTS 16.4 REB 5.3 AST 4.3 3PM 1.9
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PTS 14.1 REB 5.3 AST 1.9 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 17.1 REB 5.1 AST 3.1 3PM 2.2
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PTS 5.9 REB 5.4 AST 1.0 3PM 0.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Derrick White
OR
118.6
DR
112.7
PTS
16.4
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.3
DR
115.6
PTS
28.2
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.3
DR
113.1
PTS
28.7
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.1
DR
116.2
PTS
16.0
SF
Jayson Tatum
OR
115.0
DR
106.5
PTS
21.9
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
108.2
DR
116.1
PTS
14.0
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
119.1
DR
115.4
PTS
9.3
VS
Paul George
OR
112.7
DR
112.2
PTS
17.3
C
Neemias Queta
OR
139.4
DR
108.1
PTS
10.2
VS
Adem Bona
OR
120.3
DR
114.5
PTS
4.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Boston Celtics to win with a 77.7% probability. Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta; Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Adem Bona.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected combined total is 221.35 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with both offenses likely to push the tempo. The expected spread is 10.74 in favor of the Celtics, indicating a sizable home-court edge and a likely comfortable margin for Boston.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 221.3 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Philadelphia 76ers) 10.7 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s power rating is rising (1666.4 → 1672.4 over five games) while Philadelphia’s is slightly down (1521.3 → 1518.8).

Boston Celtics

1672.4 +6.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-19 Philadelphia 76ers 1672.4 +6.8
2026-04-12 Orlando Magic 1665.6 +6.1
2026-04-10 New Orleans Pelicans 1659.5 +4.0
2026-04-09 New York Knicks 1655.5 -10.9
2026-04-07 Charlotte Hornets 1666.4 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1518.8 -2.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-19 Boston Celtics 1518.8 -6.9
2026-04-12 Milwaukee Bucks 1525.7 +6.7
2026-04-10 Indiana Pacers 1519.0 +5.6
2026-04-09 Houston Rockets 1513.4 -7.9
2026-04-06 San Antonio Spurs 1521.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 123 91 +32
Orlando Magic 113 108 +5
New Orleans Pelicans 144 118 +26
New York Knicks 106 112 -6
Charlotte Hornets 113 102 +11

Philadelphia 76ers

2-3 in last 5
L W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 91 123 -32
Milwaukee Bucks 126 106 +20
Indiana Pacers 105 94 +11
Houston Rockets 102 113 -11
San Antonio Spurs 102 115 -13

Game Analysis

Boston arrives on a three-game winning streak, including a dominant 123–91 win over Philadelphia, a 113–108 win over Orlando, and a 144–118 win over New Orleans — recent scoring has been strong across the board. Philadelphia is 2–1 over the same span, recovering with wins over Milwaukee (126–106) and Indiana (105–94) but still reeling from the lopsided loss to the Celtics. Momentum and confidence clearly favor Boston right now. Looking at the expected starters, Boston’s five average offensive rating is 121.28 and defensive rating is 111.16, with their starters combining for 86.5 points (17.3 per player). Philadelphia’s starters average 114.92 on offense and 114.92 on defense, combining for 80.3 points (16.06 per player). Those numbers show Boston holds an edge on both ends and a bit more consistent scoring from their starters, with Jaylen Brown (28.7) and Jayson Tatum (21.9) as focal scorers against Tyrese Maxey’s 28.2.

Final Prediction

Boston’s recent form, better two-way numbers from their projected starters, and a projected 10.74-point edge explain the pick. Key factor to watch: can Philadelphia limit Boston’s starters and slow the pace, or will Boston’s offensive balance create separation early?

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