NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
79.4%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
20.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 19.4 REB 3.8 AST 6.4 3PM 2.2
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PTS 18.7 REB 6.7 AST 7.9 3PM 1.2
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PTS 14.1 REB 4.1 AST 2.6 3PM 2.5
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PTS 10.0 REB 5.6 AST 1.9 3PM 2.1
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PTS 26.4 REB 10.5 AST 3.4 3PM 2.0
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AWAY Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 16.5 REB 4.8 AST 6.3 3PM 2.4
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PTS 15.3 REB 3.4 AST 3.9 3PM 2.1
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PTS 25.4 REB 6.8 AST 6.5 3PM 2.0
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PTS 12.7 REB 4.5 AST 1.8 3PM 2.6
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PTS 11.9 REB 11.0 AST 1.4 3PM 1.2
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.5
DR
112.8
PTS
18.5
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.6
DR
116.0
PTS
16.2
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
116.8
DR
111.4
PTS
16.6
VS
Scoot Henderson
OR
108.6
DR
114.5
PTS
14.4
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
117.1
DR
113.7
PTS
13.9
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
116.8
DR
115.1
PTS
24.3
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.9
DR
111.5
PTS
11.0
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
113.3
DR
116.2
PTS
13.3
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
121.0
DR
99.4
PTS
25.2
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
129.0
DR
110.1
PTS
12.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are projected to win with a 79.4% probability. Expected starting fives — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama; Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected total is 227.48 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring outing with a respectable pace on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 9.56 points, which translates to roughly a 9.6-point edge for the home team (San Antonio), giving the Spurs a clear margin to manage in-game.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 227.5 Most likely outcome: 227 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Portland Trail Blazers) 9.6 Most likely outcome: 9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s rating has slightly dipped over the last five games while Portland’s has shown a noticeable rise.

San Antonio Spurs

1717.9 -2.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-19 Portland Trail Blazers 1717.9 +4.6
2026-04-12 Denver Nuggets 1713.3 -13.1
2026-04-10 Dallas Mavericks 1726.4 +1.8
2026-04-08 Portland Trail Blazers 1724.6 +4.0
2026-04-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1720.6 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1519.4 +8.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-19 San Antonio Spurs 1519.4 -4.6
2026-04-12 Sacramento Kings 1524.0 +5.1
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Clippers 1518.9 +12.0
2026-04-08 San Antonio Spurs 1506.9 -4.0
2026-04-06 Denver Nuggets 1510.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 111 98 +13
Denver Nuggets 118 128 -10
Dallas Mavericks 139 120 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 112 101 +11
Philadelphia 76ers 115 102 +13

Portland Trail Blazers

2-3 in last 5
L W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 98 111 -13
Sacramento Kings 122 110 +12
Los Angeles Clippers 116 97 +19
San Antonio Spurs 101 112 -11
Denver Nuggets 132 137 -5

Game Analysis

Over their last three games the Spurs are 2-1, including a recent 111-98 win over Portland and a high-scoring 139-120 win over Dallas, tempered by a 118-128 loss to Denver. The Blazers are also 2-1 after losing to San Antonio then posting solid wins over Sacramento (122-110) and the Clippers (116-97), so Portland enters with momentum but without a clear edge from the head-to-head. Both teams have shown scoring capability, but San Antonio’s results include stronger margins. Looking at the expected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of about 118.46, a defensive rating near 109.76, and 17.04 average points made — led by Victor Wembanyama’s 25.2 scoring and elite 99.4 defensive rating. Portland’s projected five average an offensive rating around 116.66, defensive rating about 114.38, and 16.04 average points made; Donovan Clingan’s 129.0 offensive rating stands out but the group defense lags.

Final Prediction

The Spurs’ combination of superior team defense and star-level production from Wembanyama gives them the clear edge. Key factor to watch: how well Portland can contain Wembanyama and limit San Antonio’s transition scoring.

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