NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Detroit Pistons
Home Team
82.7%
VS
Orlando Magic
Away Team
17.3%
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HOME Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
22.6
REB
5.1
AST
7.8
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
9.6
REB
5.5
AST
3.5
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
11.9
REB
2.7
AST
2.0
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
14.7
REB
5.1
AST
3.0
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
18.2
REB
10.0
AST
2.3
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
Jalen Suggs
PTS
13.6
REB
3.8
AST
5.4
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Desmond Bane
PTS
17.4
REB
3.8
AST
3.5
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Franz Wagner
PTS
20.0
REB
4.4
AST
3.3
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Paolo Banchero
PTS
22.3
REB
7.4
AST
5.1
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Wendell Carter Jr.
PTS
10.6
REB
6.3
AST
1.7
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
120.2
DR
110.7
PTS
24.2
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
108.1
DR
109.1
PTS
13.8
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
114.2
DR
105.1
PTS
9.9
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
119.0
DR
116.6
PTS
20.0
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.7
DR
115.4
PTS
12.2
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
120.4
DR
113.5
PTS
20.5
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
119.4
DR
111.2
PTS
13.3
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
111.4
DR
114.7
PTS
22.2
C
Jalen Duren
OR
132.5
DR
108.3
PTS
19.3
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
123.2
DR
113.4
PTS
11.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are the pick to win (82.7% probability).
Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Expected starting five — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 227.12 points, suggesting a reasonably up-tempo game with both offenses capable of scoring. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 11.28, meaning the home side is favored by roughly 11 points — a sizable edge that aligns with Detroit being the projected winner.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
227.1
Most likely outcome: 227 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Orlando Magic)
11.3
Most likely outcome: 11 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Detroit’s rating has been essentially flat over five games (+2.8), while Orlando’s has been climbing noticeably (+25.9).
Detroit Pistons
1652.8
+2.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Orlando Magic | 1652.8 | -13.9 |
| 2026-04-12 | Indiana Pacers | 1666.7 | +2.5 |
| 2026-04-10 | Charlotte Hornets | 1664.2 | +10.6 |
| 2026-04-08 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1653.6 | +3.6 |
| 2026-04-06 | Orlando Magic | 1650.0 | — |
Orlando Magic
1554.4
+25.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Detroit Pistons | 1554.4 | +14.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Boston Celtics | 1540.4 | -6.0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Chicago Bulls | 1546.4 | +6.9 |
| 2026-04-08 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1539.5 | +11.0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Detroit Pistons | 1528.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Detroit Pistons
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 101 | 112 | -11 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 133 | 121 | +12 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 118 | 100 | +18 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 137 | 111 | +26 | |
| Orlando Magic | 107 | 123 | -16 |
Orlando Magic
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 112 | 101 | +11 | |
| Boston Celtics | 108 | 113 | -5 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 127 | 103 | +24 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 132 | 120 | +12 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 123 | 107 | +16 |
Game Analysis
Over the last three games Detroit is 2-1 (loss 101-112 to Orlando, wins 133-121 over Indiana and 118-100 over Charlotte), showing they can both explode for points and defend effectively. Orlando is also 2-1 (wins 112-101 at Detroit and 127-103 vs Chicago, loss 108-113 to Boston), riding momentum but coming off a close loss to a strong opponent.
Looking at the projected starting units, Detroit’s five average an offensive rating of 122.6 and a defensive rating of 110.1, with an average 15.8 points made per starter — a balanced group with high-end scoring from Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham. Orlando’s projected five average an offensive rating of 116.4 and defensive rating of 113.5, and 17.7 points made per starter — more scoring spread across starters but slightly weaker on defense.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s combination of higher offensive efficiency (122.6) and stronger team defense (110.1) is why they have the clear edge. Keep an eye on how well Detroit contains Orlando’s multi-headed scoring; that matchup will decide if the gap holds.
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