NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
93.3%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
6.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 28.1 REB 4.4 AST 6.3 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 19.3 REB 5.3 AST 5.3 3PM 1.1
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PTS 7.7 REB 3.4 AST 1.5 3PM 2.1
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PTS 18.4 REB 9.1 AST 1.6 3PM 1.4
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PTS 7.2 REB 9.1 AST 2.6 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Phoenix Suns
PTS 9.1 REB 4.0 AST 1.9 3PM 2.0
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PTS 27.6 REB 4.4 AST 5.4 3PM 2.4
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PTS 18.7 REB 4.2 AST 2.1 3PM 2.5
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PTS 21.0 REB 4.2 AST 1.9 3PM 2.7
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PTS 11.5 REB 7.9 AST 1.1 3PM 0.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.7
DR
107.8
PTS
31.0
VS
Jordan Goodwin
OR
115.5
DR
112.5
PTS
8.6
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
118.5
DR
109.8
PTS
17.2
VS
Devin Booker
OR
119.3
DR
117.7
PTS
26.0
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.5
DR
111.0
PTS
8.3
VS
Jalen Green
OR
98.0
DR
114.8
PTS
17.7
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.8
DR
102.8
PTS
17.1
VS
Dillon Brooks
OR
107.6
DR
116.9
PTS
20.2
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
125.2
DR
102.3
PTS
9.2
VS
Mark Williams
OR
132.0
DR
110.5
PTS
11.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model strongly favors the Oklahoma City Thunder to win (93.3% probability). Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein; Phoenix Suns: Jordan Goodwin, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 215.2 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game rather than a grind-it-out defensive battle. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 15.27 points in favor of the home team; coupled with the Thunder being the clear pick, that implies a double-digit advantage for Oklahoma City.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 215.2 Most likely outcome: 215 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Phoenix Suns) 15.3 Most likely outcome: 16 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

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ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s power rating has fallen modestly over five games (from 1736.2 down to 1708.1, -22.2), while Phoenix has ticked up overall (+10.0 over the same span).

Oklahoma City Thunder

1708.1 -22.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-19 Phoenix Suns 1708.1 +5.7
2026-04-12 Phoenix Suns 1702.4 -19.1
2026-04-10 Denver Nuggets 1721.5 -14.7
2026-04-08 Los Angeles Clippers 1736.2 +5.9
2026-04-07 Los Angeles Lakers 1730.3 —

Phoenix Suns

1516.3 +10.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-19 Oklahoma City Thunder 1516.3 -5.8
2026-04-12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1522.1 +19.2
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.9 -8.6
2026-04-08 Dallas Mavericks 1511.5 +5.2
2026-04-07 Houston Rockets 1506.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 119 84 +35
Phoenix Suns 103 135 -32
Denver Nuggets 107 127 -20
Los Angeles Clippers 128 110 +18
Los Angeles Lakers 123 87 +36

Phoenix Suns

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 84 119 -35
Oklahoma City Thunder 135 103 +32
Los Angeles Lakers 73 101 -28
Dallas Mavericks 112 107 +5
Houston Rockets 105 119 -14

Game Analysis

Both teams enter on uneven recent form: Oklahoma City is 1-2 in the last three (including a 119-84 win over Phoenix, but losses of 103-135 and 107-127), showing they can dominate but have also been vulnerable; Phoenix is likewise 1-2 with a 135-103 win over OKC sandwiched between two heavy losses (84-119 and 73-101). Those score swings point to inconsistent defense and stretches of offensive inefficiency for both clubs. Looking at the expected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of about 121.94 and a defensive rating near 106.74, with an average of 16.56 points made per starter — led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.0). Phoenix’s starting five average an offensive rating of about 114.48 and a defensive rating also about 114.48, with 16.84 points made per starter — led by Devin Booker (26.0). The Thunder’s superior average offensive and defensive ratings suggest they control both ends.

Final Prediction

Oklahoma City’s combination of higher team ratings, a dominant recent win over Phoenix, and star scoring from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gives them the clear edge. Key factor to watch: how well Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein contain Mark Williams and limit second-chance opportunities, which could swing the margin.

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