NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Atlanta Hawks
Home Team
64.2%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
35.8%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
20.9
REB
4.2
AST
4.8
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dyson Daniels
PTS
11.9
REB
6.8
AST
6.1
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
19.4
REB
4.0
AST
3.7
3PM
3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Johnson
PTS
22.1
REB
9.6
AST
5.8
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
14.2
REB
7.3
AST
2.3
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.4
REB
3.7
AST
6.2
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Josh Hart
PTS
13.0
REB
7.6
AST
5.3
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mikal Bridges
PTS
11.0
REB
3.5
AST
3.0
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
14.5
REB
5.8
AST
2.3
3PM
2.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
19.4
REB
11.0
AST
3.3
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
CJ McCollum
OR
112.8
DR
114.5
PTS
19.2
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
120.9
DR
116.6
PTS
26.1
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
118.0
DR
111.7
PTS
11.7
VS
Josh Hart
OR
120.2
DR
111.0
PTS
12.0
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.6
DR
116.0
PTS
20.6
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.5
DR
113.9
PTS
14.3
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
115.4
DR
110.9
PTS
22.4
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
118.1
DR
112.6
PTS
16.7
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.6
DR
111.9
PTS
15.2
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.7
DR
109.9
PTS
20.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Atlanta Hawks to win (64.2% probability).
Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu; New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 222.17 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with a decent amount of offense on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 3.47, giving the home team roughly a 3.5-point edge heading into tipoff.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.2
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - New York Knicks)
3.5
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Atlanta’s power rating has inched up (+1.0 over five games) while New York’s has slipped (-7.9), so the Hawks carry a bit more recent momentum.
Atlanta Hawks
1578.3
+1.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | New York Knicks | 1578.3 | +11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | New York Knicks | 1566.7 | -8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Miami Heat | 1575.4 | -14.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1590.0 | +12.7 |
| 2026-04-08 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1577.3 | — |
New York Knicks
1612.4
-7.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Atlanta Hawks | 1612.4 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.0 | +8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charlotte Hornets | 1615.3 | -12.8 |
| 2026-04-10 | Toronto Raptors | 1628.1 | +7.8 |
| 2026-04-09 | Boston Celtics | 1620.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 107 | 106 | +1 | |
| New York Knicks | 102 | 113 | -11 | |
| Miami Heat | 117 | 143 | -26 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 124 | 102 | +22 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 116 | 122 | -6 |
New York Knicks
3-2 in last 5
L
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 106 | 107 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 113 | 102 | +11 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 96 | 110 | -14 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 112 | 95 | +17 | |
| Boston Celtics | 112 | 106 | +6 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs are 1-2 over the last three games and have traded wins in their recent matchups: Atlanta beat New York 107-106 but also lost 102-113; Atlanta’s other result was a heavy 117-143 loss to Miami. The Knicks’ other loss was a 96-110 defeat to Charlotte, underlining some offensive inconsistency for New York and a defensive lapse for Atlanta in the Miami game.
Looking at the expected starting fives, Atlanta’s five average offensive rating is 115.88, defensive rating 113.0, and average points made 17.82. New York’s five average offensive rating is 121.28, defensive rating 112.8, and average points made 17.84. The Knicks look sharper offensively on paper, but the two teams have nearly identical scoring contributions from their starters and comparable team defense numbers, so matchup execution will matter.
Final Prediction
Atlanta’s slight upward momentum and the narrow head-to-head win give them the edge despite New York’s higher offensive ratings — hence the 64.2% call. Key factor to watch: can the Hawks avoid another defensive collapse and contain Jalen Brunson and New York’s efficient starters?
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