NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
48.3%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
51.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 27.9 REB 6.0 AST 4.6 3PM 3.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.8 REB 4.0 AST 4.0 3PM 3.1
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PTS 16.8 REB 5.0 AST 2.9 3PM 1.5
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PTS 22.4 REB 7.7 AST 4.8 3PM 1.8
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PTS 12.2 REB 10.9 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Denver Nuggets
PTS 25.4 REB 4.8 AST 6.7 3PM 3.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 11.9 REB 4.6 AST 2.7 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 14.6 REB 5.9 AST 3.2 3PM 1.5
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PTS 11.6 REB 3.8 AST 1.9 3PM 1.9
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PTS 24.1 REB 11.6 AST 8.4 3PM 1.3
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Anthony Edwards
OR
116.6
DR
115.2
PTS
28.7
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
124.6
DR
119.9
PTS
25.5
SG
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.7
DR
114.6
PTS
12.2
VS
Christian Braun
OR
125.0
DR
118.0
PTS
12.0
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.0
DR
115.3
PTS
14.9
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.1
DR
116.1
PTS
16.0
PF
Julius Randle
OR
116.8
DR
113.9
PTS
21.1
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
123.8
DR
118.6
PTS
12.2
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
129.6
DR
109.6
PTS
10.9
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
134.8
DR
112.4
PTS
27.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets are the pick to win (51.7% probability). Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert. Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 235.37 points, signaling a relatively high-scoring affair and a brisk pace from both sides. The expected spread is Home - Away = -1.39, which implies a very slim advantage (about 1.4 points) for the away team.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 235.4 Most likely outcome: 235 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Denver Nuggets) -1.4 Most likely outcome: -2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ power ratings are trending upward over the last five games — Minnesota +22.7 and Denver +22.5.

Minnesota Timberwolves

1563.8 +22.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-20 Denver Nuggets 1563.8 +12.7
2026-04-18 Denver Nuggets 1551.1 -7.4
2026-04-12 New Orleans Pelicans 1558.5 +5.2
2026-04-10 Houston Rockets 1553.3 +12.2
2026-04-08 Orlando Magic 1541.1 —

Denver Nuggets

1640.4 +22.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-20 Minnesota Timberwolves 1640.4 -12.7
2026-04-18 Minnesota Timberwolves 1653.1 +7.3
2026-04-12 San Antonio Spurs 1645.8 +13.2
2026-04-10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1632.6 +14.7
2026-04-08 Memphis Grizzlies 1617.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 119 114 +5
Denver Nuggets 105 116 -11
New Orleans Pelicans 132 126 +6
Houston Rockets 136 132 +4
Orlando Magic 120 132 -12

Denver Nuggets

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 114 119 -5
Minnesota Timberwolves 116 105 +11
San Antonio Spurs 128 118 +10
Oklahoma City Thunder 127 107 +20
Memphis Grizzlies 136 119 +17

Game Analysis

The recent sample shows a tight back-and-forth: Minnesota is 2-1 (wins over Denver 119-114 and New Orleans 132-126, loss at Denver 105-116) while Denver is also 2-1 (split with Minnesota and a 128-118 win over San Antonio). Both clubs have been trading results head-to-head, so momentum is marginal and matchups will decide the outcome. Minnesota’s wins feature strong scoring nights, while Denver’s wins highlight balanced offense. Looking at the expected starters, Denver’s group carries a higher average offensive rating (125.86) than Minnesota’s (118.34), while Minnesota has a slightly better average defensive rating (113.72 vs. Denver’s 117.00). Denver’s starters also average more points (18.66 vs. Minnesota’s 17.56). Nikola Jokić (OFFENSIVE RATING 134.8, AVG_POINTS_MADE 27.6) is the clearest engine of Denver’s edge; Anthony Edwards (OFFENSIVE RATING 116.6, AVG_POINTS_MADE 28.7) will be Minnesota’s primary counter.

Final Prediction

Denver’s superior offensive profile and Jokić’s elite play give them the narrow edge in a close, high-scoring game. Watch the Jokic–Gobert matchup and how Minnesota’s defense contains Denver’s spacing — that will likely determine the final margin.

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