NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Toronto Raptors

Home Team
55.3%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
44.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Toronto Raptors
PTS 14.2 REB 3.7 AST 5.4 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.9 REB 5.7 AST 4.4 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.2 REB 5.6 AST 3.4 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.8 REB 7.0 AST 5.5 3PM 0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.3 REB 6.8 AST 1.6 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 22.3 REB 4.1 AST 6.9 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.8 REB 4.8 AST 5.5 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 5.8 REB 4.0 AST 1.7 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.2 REB 9.0 AST 3.0 3PM 0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.6 REB 8.1 AST 1.6 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.9
DR
114.5
PTS
16.4
VS
James Harden
OR
124.0
DR
117.2
PTS
20.9
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.9
DR
114.8
PTS
21.3
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
121.2
DR
115.6
PTS
28.0
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
115.6
DR
115.0
PTS
19.4
VS
Dean Wade
OR
131.0
DR
114.7
PTS
5.7
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.9
DR
110.5
PTS
18.2
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
120.4
DR
112.4
PTS
18.2
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
126.0
DR
110.4
PTS
10.4
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
129.6
DR
111.6
PTS
15.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Toronto Raptors are the pick to win (55.3% probability). Expected starting fives — Toronto: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. Cleveland: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game projects to about 223.99 total points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair with plenty of possessions and offense on display. The expected spread is just 0.14 (Home - Away), a virtually negligible edge that slightly favors the home team by a quarter point.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.0 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Cleveland Cavaliers) 0.1
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Toronto’s power rating has drifted down over the last five games while Cleveland’s has inched up.

Toronto Raptors

1519.4 -18.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-20 Cleveland Cavaliers 1519.4 -7.0
2026-04-18 Cleveland Cavaliers 1526.4 -7.8
2026-04-12 Brooklyn Nets 1534.2 +4.7
2026-04-10 New York Knicks 1529.5 -7.9
2026-04-09 Miami Heat 1537.4 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1620.6 +4.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-20 Toronto Raptors 1620.6 +7.0
2026-04-18 Toronto Raptors 1613.6 +7.8
2026-04-12 Washington Wizards 1605.8 +2.0
2026-04-10 Atlanta Hawks 1603.8 -12.7
2026-04-08 Atlanta Hawks 1616.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Toronto Raptors

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 105 115 -10
Cleveland Cavaliers 113 126 -13
Brooklyn Nets 136 101 +35
New York Knicks 95 112 -17
Miami Heat 128 114 +14

Cleveland Cavaliers

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 115 105 +10
Toronto Raptors 126 113 +13
Washington Wizards 130 117 +13
Atlanta Hawks 102 124 -22
Atlanta Hawks 122 116 +6

Game Analysis

Recent form splits clearly: Toronto is 1-2 in the last three (losses 105-115 and 113-126 to Cleveland, plus a 136-101 win over Brooklyn), showing they can explode offensively but have struggled against Cleveland. Cleveland is 3-0 in their last three (two wins over Toronto and 130-117 over Washington) and arrives with momentum and confidence from those wins. Looking at the starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating around 117.66, defensive rating about 113.04, and average points made roughly 17.14 per starter — a balanced group with Jakob Poeltl’s 126.0 offensive rating and Scottie Barnes’ 110.5 defensive rating standing out. Cleveland’s starters average a higher offensive rating near 125.24, defensive rating about 114.30, and 17.6 points made per starter, driven by Donovan Mitchell (121.2 OR, 28.0 PTS) and James Harden (124.0 OR). Cleveland’s superior offensive numbers clash with Toronto’s slightly better team defense.

Final Prediction

Toronto’s edge comes from a balanced starting five and the ability to flip between stout defense and sudden scoring bursts, plus the very small home advantage implied by the spread. Key factor to watch: how well the Raptors contain Donovan Mitchell and disrupt Cleveland’s offensive flow without giving up easy looks to James Harden.

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