NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
53.5%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
46.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 25.9 REB 4.0 AST 5.7 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 5.4 AST 4.4 3PM 2.2
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PTS 14.2 REB 5.1 AST 2.0 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.2 REB 5.1 AST 3.1 3PM 2.3
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PTS 6.1 REB 5.4 AST 1.0 3PM 0.1
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AWAY Boston Celtics
PTS 15.3 REB 4.0 AST 4.6 3PM 2.7
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PTS 27.9 REB 6.4 AST 4.7 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 24.1 REB 10.5 AST 6.2 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 10.0 REB 4.4 AST 1.6 3PM 2.8
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PTS 9.6 REB 8.2 AST 1.3 3PM 0.1
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.3
DR
115.6
PTS
28.2
VS
Derrick White
OR
118.0
DR
112.9
PTS
16.3
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.5
DR
116.0
PTS
16.1
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.5
DR
113.3
PTS
28.8
SF
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
108.5
DR
116.0
PTS
14.0
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
114.8
DR
107.2
PTS
21.8
PF
Paul George
OR
113.1
DR
112.2
PTS
17.4
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
118.9
DR
115.6
PTS
9.2
C
Adem Bona
OR
118.7
DR
114.4
PTS
4.8
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
139.4
DR
108.4
PTS
10.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia 76ers are picked to win (53.5% probability). Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Adem Bona. Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 219.22 points, pointing to a moderately paced, scoring-friendly game rather than a grind-it-out defensive battle. The projected spread is Home - Away = -0.85, a hair favoring the visiting 76ers by less than a point. Note that two separate models are used here—one produces the win probability and another estimates the point spread—and both outputs are shown for transparency (they may not always tell the same story).

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 219.2 Most likely outcome: 219 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Boston Celtics) -0.8 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Philadelphia’s power rating has climbed noticeably (+20.8 over five games) while Boston’s has been relatively flat (+1.6), giving Philly clearer momentum.

Philadelphia 76ers

1534.2 +20.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-21 Boston Celtics 1534.2 +15.4
2026-04-19 Boston Celtics 1518.8 -6.9
2026-04-12 Milwaukee Bucks 1525.7 +6.7
2026-04-10 Indiana Pacers 1519.0 +5.6
2026-04-09 Houston Rockets 1513.4 —

Boston Celtics

1657.1 +1.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-21 Philadelphia 76ers 1657.1 -15.3
2026-04-19 Philadelphia 76ers 1672.4 +6.8
2026-04-12 Orlando Magic 1665.6 +6.1
2026-04-10 New Orleans Pelicans 1659.5 +4.0
2026-04-09 New York Knicks 1655.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 111 97 +14
Boston Celtics 91 123 -32
Milwaukee Bucks 126 106 +20
Indiana Pacers 105 94 +11
Houston Rockets 102 113 -11

Boston Celtics

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 97 111 -14
Philadelphia 76ers 123 91 +32
Orlando Magic 113 108 +5
New Orleans Pelicans 144 118 +26
New York Knicks 106 112 -6

Game Analysis

Both teams split their recent head-to-heads: Philly beat Boston 111-97 and lost 91-123, and also beat Milwaukee 126-106; Boston’s other recent result was a 113-108 win over Orlando. Philly arrives with two wins in three and an upward trend; Boston is 2-1 but less streaky. Those swings suggest matchup adjustments and hot shooting nights will decide this pairing. Looking at starters, Boston’s five average an offensive rating of 121.12, defensive rating of 111.48, and average points made per starter of 17.26. Philly’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 114.82, defensive rating of 114.84, and 16.10 points made per starter. Boston’s starters show higher offensive upside, but Philly’s recent form and balance — led by Tyrese Maxey (28.2 ppg) and solid contributions from Paul George (17.4) — narrows the gap.

Final Prediction

Philly gets the slight edge because of stronger momentum and recent head-to-head success, reflected in the 53.5% win probability and the tiny spread tilt. The key factor to watch: can Boston’s high-starting-five offensive efficiency (121.12) be contained by Philly’s surging group, or will Maxey and company dictate tempo?

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