NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Team
45.2%
VS
San Antonio Spurs
Away Team
54.8%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Portland Trail Blazers
Jrue Holiday
PTS
16.7
REB
4.8
AST
6.3
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Scoot Henderson
PTS
16.1
REB
3.3
AST
3.7
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Deni Avdija
PTS
24.5
REB
6.8
AST
6.2
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Toumani Camara
PTS
11.9
REB
4.6
AST
1.9
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Donovan Clingan
PTS
11.7
REB
11.0
AST
1.5
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
De'Aaron Fox
PTS
19.9
REB
4.1
AST
6.2
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Stephon Castle
PTS
19.0
REB
6.1
AST
7.0
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Devin Vassell
PTS
15.1
REB
4.6
AST
2.6
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Julian Champagnie
PTS
9.8
REB
5.3
AST
1.7
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Victor Wembanyama
PTS
25.2
REB
9.9
AST
3.1
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.2
DR
115.9
PTS
16.2
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.2
DR
112.9
PTS
18.5
SG
Scoot Henderson
OR
109.7
DR
114.4
PTS
14.9
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.5
DR
111.4
PTS
16.7
SF
Deni Avdija
OR
116.3
DR
115.1
PTS
24.1
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.8
DR
113.5
PTS
14.0
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
113.8
DR
116.0
PTS
13.3
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
119.2
DR
111.5
PTS
11.0
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
128.7
DR
110.0
PTS
12.0
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.7
DR
99.6
PTS
24.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (54.8% probability).
Expected starting five — Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan. San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 222.72 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with a steady pace and both teams capable of putting up offense. The spread of -4.43 (home − away) implies the away team, San Antonio, holds about a 4.4-point advantage in this matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.7
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - San Antonio Spurs)
-4.4
Most likely outcome: -5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Portland’s rating has been rising over the last five games (+26.5) while San Antonio’s trend has been falling (-20.7).
Portland Trail Blazers
1533.4
+26.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | San Antonio Spurs | 1533.4 | +14.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | San Antonio Spurs | 1519.4 | -4.6 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sacramento Kings | 1524.0 | +5.1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1518.9 | +12.0 |
| 2026-04-08 | San Antonio Spurs | 1506.9 | — |
San Antonio Spurs
1703.9
-20.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1703.9 | -14.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1717.9 | +4.6 |
| 2026-04-12 | Denver Nuggets | 1713.3 | -13.1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dallas Mavericks | 1726.4 | +1.8 |
| 2026-04-08 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1724.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Portland Trail Blazers
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 106 | 103 | +3 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 98 | 111 | -13 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 122 | 110 | +12 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 116 | 97 | +19 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 101 | 112 | -11 |
San Antonio Spurs
3-2 in last 5
L
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 103 | 106 | -3 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 111 | 98 | +13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 118 | 128 | -10 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 139 | 120 | +19 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 112 | 101 | +11 |
Game Analysis
Portland is 2-1 in its last three games, splitting a pair with San Antonio (106-103 win and a 98-111 loss) and beating Sacramento 122-110; the Blazers have shown the ability to score in bunches but have been inconsistent defensively. San Antonio is 1-2 over the same stretch, trading results with Portland and losing 118-128 to Denver, indicating occasional defensive lapses that can be exploited.
Looking at the expected fives, Portland’s starters combine for an offensive rating of about 116.7 and a defensive rating near 114.3, totaling 80.5 points (16.1 per player) on average. San Antonio’s starters are stronger on both ends: an average offensive rating of roughly 118.3, a defensive rating around 109.8, and they combine for 85.0 points (17.0 per player). That defensive edge, largely anchored by Victor Wembanyama’s 99.6 defensive rating, swings the matchup toward the Spurs.
Final Prediction
San Antonio’s better balance—slightly higher offensive output and a noticeably stronger defensive profile—gives them the edge in a close game. Watch how Wembanyama affects Portland’s interior scoring and whether Deni Avdija can carry the Blazers offensively.
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