NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Atlanta Hawks
Home Team
59.1%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
40.9%
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HOME Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
22.1
REB
4.2
AST
4.7
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dyson Daniels
PTS
11.7
REB
7.3
AST
6.4
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
19.1
REB
3.9
AST
3.5
3PM
3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Johnson
PTS
23.0
REB
9.6
AST
6.1
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
13.8
REB
7.5
AST
2.3
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.9
REB
3.6
AST
6.1
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Josh Hart
PTS
12.1
REB
8.4
AST
5.5
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mikal Bridges
PTS
11.1
REB
3.2
AST
3.1
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
15.7
REB
6.3
AST
2.5
3PM
2.3
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
19.9
REB
11.6
AST
3.8
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
CJ McCollum
OR
112.5
DR
114.4
PTS
19.2
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
120.7
DR
116.5
PTS
26.1
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.6
DR
111.5
PTS
11.6
VS
Josh Hart
OR
119.3
DR
110.9
PTS
11.9
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.4
DR
115.9
PTS
20.5
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
123.2
DR
114.0
PTS
14.1
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
115.4
DR
110.8
PTS
22.5
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
118.9
DR
112.5
PTS
16.8
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.7
DR
111.8
PTS
15.1
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
122.9
DR
109.7
PTS
20.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Atlanta Hawks to win (59.1% probability).
Expected starting fives — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 223.77 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a solid offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread is 3.89 in favor of the home team, giving the home side roughly a four-point edge on the spread.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
223.8
Most likely outcome: 223 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - New York Knicks)
3.9
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Atlanta’s power rating is roughly flat with a small dip over five games, while New York’s power rating has fallen noticeably in that span.
Atlanta Hawks
1588.7
-1.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | New York Knicks | 1588.7 | +10.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | New York Knicks | 1578.3 | +11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | New York Knicks | 1566.7 | -8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Miami Heat | 1575.4 | -14.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1590.0 | — |
New York Knicks
1602.0
-26.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Atlanta Hawks | 1602.0 | -10.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Atlanta Hawks | 1612.4 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.0 | +8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charlotte Hornets | 1615.3 | -12.8 |
| 2026-04-10 | Toronto Raptors | 1628.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Atlanta Hawks
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 109 | 108 | +1 | |
| New York Knicks | 107 | 106 | +1 | |
| New York Knicks | 102 | 113 | -11 | |
| Miami Heat | 117 | 143 | -26 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 124 | 102 | +22 |
New York Knicks
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 108 | 109 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 106 | 107 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 113 | 102 | +11 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 96 | 110 | -14 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 112 | 95 | +17 |
Game Analysis
The last three meetings have been tight: Atlanta won two close games (109-108 and 107-106) and dropped one (102-113), while New York’s recent results mirror that pattern (two narrow losses to Atlanta and one earlier win). Those scores underline how these matchups have been determined by late-game execution and defense in clutch moments. Atlanta’s back-to-back one-point wins show they’ve been able to close against New York recently.
Looking at the expected starters, New York’s group posts a higher average offensive rating (121.0) versus Atlanta’s (115.72), while the defensive ratings are nearly identical (Knicks 112.72, Hawks 112.88). Average points made across the five starters are virtually the same (Knicks 17.8, Hawks 17.78). That suggests New York has more firepower on paper, but the overall balance of the starting units is close, and recent game outcomes favor Atlanta’s ability to win tight contests.
Final Prediction
Atlanta gets the edge because of recent head-to-head success and the ability to grind out close wins, reflected in the 59.1% projection. Key factor to watch: whether Atlanta can contain Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns enough in late-game possessions to sustain their advantage.
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