NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
47.9%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
52.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 26.7 REB 5.8 AST 4.3 3PM 3.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.6 REB 4.2 AST 4.2 3PM 3.0
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PTS 15.8 REB 5.4 AST 2.8 3PM 1.4
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PTS 21.6 REB 7.4 AST 4.5 3PM 1.7
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PTS 11.4 REB 11.1 AST 1.7 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Denver Nuggets
PTS 26.2 REB 4.7 AST 6.5 3PM 2.9
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PTS 11.9 REB 4.8 AST 2.7 3PM 1.2
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PTS 16.2 REB 6.6 AST 3.2 3PM 1.7
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PTS 11.6 REB 3.9 AST 1.9 3PM 1.9
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PTS 26.9 REB 12.0 AST 8.0 3PM 1.7
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Anthony Edwards
OR
116.4
DR
114.9
PTS
28.5
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
124.1
DR
119.8
PTS
25.4
SG
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
114.8
DR
114.3
PTS
12.3
VS
Christian Braun
OR
123.4
DR
118.0
PTS
11.8
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.6
DR
115.1
PTS
14.9
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.1
DR
116.1
PTS
16.0
PF
Julius Randle
OR
116.6
DR
113.7
PTS
21.0
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
123.2
DR
118.5
PTS
12.1
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
129.7
DR
109.4
PTS
10.9
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
134.1
DR
112.3
PTS
27.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets — 52.1% chance to win. Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert. Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected total is 232.64 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and a decent amount of offensive action from both sides. The expected spread (Home − Away = −0.16) is essentially a pick’em, giving a tiny 0.16-point edge to the road team and indicating no meaningful gap between the teams on paper.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.6 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Denver Nuggets) -0.2 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Minnesota’s power rating is trending up while Denver’s has ticked down over the last five games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

1576.6 +23.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-23 Denver Nuggets 1576.6 +12.8
2026-04-20 Denver Nuggets 1563.8 +12.7
2026-04-18 Denver Nuggets 1551.1 -7.4
2026-04-12 New Orleans Pelicans 1558.5 +5.2
2026-04-10 Houston Rockets 1553.3 —

Denver Nuggets

1627.6 -5.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-23 Minnesota Timberwolves 1627.6 -12.8
2026-04-20 Minnesota Timberwolves 1640.4 -12.7
2026-04-18 Minnesota Timberwolves 1653.1 +7.3
2026-04-12 San Antonio Spurs 1645.8 +13.2
2026-04-10 Oklahoma City Thunder 1632.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 113 96 +17
Denver Nuggets 119 114 +5
Denver Nuggets 105 116 -11
New Orleans Pelicans 132 126 +6
Houston Rockets 136 132 +4

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 96 113 -17
Minnesota Timberwolves 114 119 -5
Minnesota Timberwolves 116 105 +11
San Antonio Spurs 128 118 +10
Oklahoma City Thunder 127 107 +20

Game Analysis

The teams split the recent three-game series with Minnesota taking two of the last three (wins 113-96 and 119-114, loss 105-116). Minnesota’s recent momentum shows improvement, reflected in their power rating rising to 1576.6. Denver lost two of those three to Minnesota but still produced a 116-105 win in the series middle game; their five-game trend has dipped to 1627.6. Looking at starters, Minnesota’s five-man group averages an offensive rating of 118.4, defensive rating of 113.5, and average points made of 17.52 per starter. Denver’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 125.2, defensive rating of 116.9, and average points made of 18.58 per starter. That frames this as a clash of Denver’s superior offensive efficiency (Nikola Jokić’s 134.1) against Minnesota’s stronger starter-level defense (team defensive average 113.5 and Rudy Gobert’s 109.4).

Final Prediction

Denver gets the nod because their starting five carries a clear offensive edge, with Jokić and Murray pushing the team’s offensive rating well above Minnesota’s. The key factor to watch: how Minnesota’s defense, centered on Rudy Gobert, contains Nikola Jokić and whether Minnesota’s rising form can overcome Denver’s offensive firepower.

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