NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
36.9%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
63.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Phoenix Suns
PTS 9.6 REB 4.3 AST 2.1 3PM 2.0
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PTS 27.2 REB 5.2 AST 5.5 3PM 2.2
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PTS 20.0 REB 4.7 AST 2.7 3PM 2.6
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PTS 22.1 REB 4.8 AST 2.2 3PM 2.8
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PTS 6.9 REB 6.9 AST 2.4 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 29.2 REB 4.6 AST 6.3 3PM 1.9
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PTS 7.1 REB 3.7 AST 2.4 3PM 1.6
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PTS 7.5 REB 3.3 AST 1.4 3PM 2.3
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PTS 18.1 REB 8.8 AST 1.6 3PM 1.6
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PTS 8.1 REB 9.3 AST 2.1 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jordan Goodwin
OR
115.5
DR
112.5
PTS
8.6
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.7
DR
107.9
PTS
31.1
SG
Devin Booker
OR
119.2
DR
117.8
PTS
26.0
VS
Cason Wallace
OR
112.7
DR
106.0
PTS
8.4
SF
Jalen Green
OR
97.5
DR
115.1
PTS
17.8
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.9
DR
111.1
PTS
8.4
PF
Dillon Brooks
OR
108.0
DR
117.1
PTS
20.3
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
124.7
DR
102.9
PTS
17.1
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
118.3
DR
112.8
PTS
6.4
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
125.5
DR
102.4
PTS
9.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (63.1% probability). Expected starting fives — Phoenix Suns: Jordan Goodwin, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Oso Ighodaro. Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring affair with a combined total of 224.94 points, suggesting a fairly fast pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread is Home - Away = -4.29, which translates to roughly a 4.3-point edge for the away team (the Thunder).

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.9 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Oklahoma City Thunder) -4.3 Most likely outcome: -5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Phoenix’s power rating has been essentially stable (+0.3 over five games) while Oklahoma City’s has fallen over the same span (-23.5).

Phoenix Suns

1511.8 +0.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-22 Oklahoma City Thunder 1511.8 -4.5
2026-04-19 Oklahoma City Thunder 1516.3 -5.8
2026-04-12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1522.1 +19.2
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.9 -8.6
2026-04-08 Dallas Mavericks 1511.5 —

Oklahoma City Thunder

1712.7 -23.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-22 Phoenix Suns 1712.7 +4.6
2026-04-19 Phoenix Suns 1708.1 +5.7
2026-04-12 Phoenix Suns 1702.4 -19.1
2026-04-10 Denver Nuggets 1721.5 -14.7
2026-04-08 Los Angeles Clippers 1736.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 107 120 -13
Oklahoma City Thunder 84 119 -35
Oklahoma City Thunder 135 103 +32
Los Angeles Lakers 73 101 -28
Dallas Mavericks 112 107 +5

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 120 107 +13
Phoenix Suns 119 84 +35
Phoenix Suns 103 135 -32
Denver Nuggets 107 127 -20
Los Angeles Clippers 128 110 +18

Game Analysis

Recent form heavily favors the Thunder in head-to-heads: Oklahoma City beat Phoenix 120-107 and 119-84 in the two most recent matchups, while Phoenix’s lone recent win was a 135-103 game — showing swings in both teams’ outcomes. That pattern suggests OKC has been able to dominate Phoenix at times this meeting cycle, and Phoenix will need to clean up the defensive lapses that led to 119 and 120 opponent points. Looking at the projected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average OFFENSIVE RATING is 120.9 and DEFENSIVE RATING is 106.1, with an average POINTS MADE of 14.84. Phoenix’s starting five average OFFENSIVE RATING is 111.7 and DEFENSIVE RATING is 115.1, with an average POINTS MADE of 15.82. The Thunder’s stronger offensive and defensive ratings — led by Shai’s 135.7 ORtg — give them a clear efficiency advantage despite Phoenix’s slightly higher per-starter scoring average.

Final Prediction

The Thunder’s combination of elite offense (especially Shai) and superior defensive numbers gives them the edge and supports the 63.1% lean. Watch Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring and how Phoenix defends Oklahoma City’s interior (Chet Holmgren/Isaiah Hartenstein) — that matchup will likely decide the game.

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