NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Team
38.0%
VS
Boston Celtics
Away Team
62.0%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
26.7
REB
4.3
AST
5.8
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
VJ Edgecombe
PTS
16.7
REB
5.9
AST
4.4
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Kelly Oubre Jr.
PTS
14.6
REB
5.5
AST
2.1
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Paul George
PTS
17.3
REB
5.1
AST
3.5
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Adem Bona
PTS
6.8
REB
5.8
AST
1.0
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Boston Celtics
Derrick White
PTS
15.3
REB
3.7
AST
4.7
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jaylen Brown
PTS
27.3
REB
6.1
AST
4.9
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jayson Tatum
PTS
22.6
REB
8.8
AST
6.1
3PM
3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Sam Hauser
PTS
9.6
REB
4.1
AST
1.5
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Neemias Queta
PTS
9.3
REB
7.7
AST
1.3
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.2
DR
115.7
PTS
28.2
VS
Derrick White
OR
117.7
DR
112.9
PTS
16.2
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.1
DR
116.1
PTS
16.1
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.6
DR
113.3
PTS
28.7
SF
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
109.2
DR
116.2
PTS
14.0
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
116.9
DR
107.7
PTS
21.9
PF
Paul George
OR
113.6
DR
112.6
PTS
17.4
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
119.5
DR
115.6
PTS
9.2
C
Adem Bona
OR
118.4
DR
114.4
PTS
4.8
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
139.0
DR
108.1
PTS
10.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Boston Celtics are projected to win (62.0% probability).
Expected starting fives — Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Adem Bona. Boston: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 222.04 points, indicating a moderately high-scoring game that should move at a decent pace. The spread is about 1.2 points in Boston’s favor, a razor-thin margin that points to a one-possession contest where late-game execution will matter.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.0
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Boston Celtics)
-1.2
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show rising momentum over the last five games: Philadelphia up +8.0, Boston up +4.7.
Philadelphia 76ers
1527.0
+8.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Boston Celtics | 1527.0 | -7.2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Boston Celtics | 1534.2 | +15.4 |
| 2026-04-19 | Boston Celtics | 1518.8 | -6.9 |
| 2026-04-12 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1525.7 | +6.7 |
| 2026-04-10 | Indiana Pacers | 1519.0 | — |
Boston Celtics
1664.2
+4.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1664.2 | +7.1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1657.1 | -15.3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1672.4 | +6.8 |
| 2026-04-12 | Orlando Magic | 1665.6 | +6.1 |
| 2026-04-10 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1659.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
L
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 108 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 111 | 97 | +14 | |
| Boston Celtics | 91 | 123 | -32 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 126 | 106 | +20 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 105 | 94 | +11 |
Boston Celtics
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 100 | +8 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 97 | 111 | -14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 123 | 91 | +32 | |
| Orlando Magic | 113 | 108 | +5 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 144 | 118 | +26 |
Game Analysis
These clubs have split their recent series, with Boston winning the most recent meeting 108–100, Philadelphia taking the prior matchup 111–97, and Boston posting a 123–91 win in the other game. That back-and-forth suggests both teams know each other well and adjustments have swung outcomes from game to game rather than a sustained streak by either side.
Looking at the expected starters, Philadelphia’s five average an offensive rating of about 114.9 and a defensive rating near 115.0, with a starters’ scoring average around 16.1 points each; Tyrese Maxey stands out at 28.2 ppg. Boston’s starters bring roughly a 121.5 offensive rating and a 111.5 defensive rating, averaging about 17.2 points apiece; Jaylen Brown (28.7) and Jayson Tatum (21.9) supply the primary scoring punch, while Neemias Queta’s 139.0 offensive rating is an outlier to watch.
Final Prediction
Boston’s edge comes from a notably higher starting-five offensive rating and a slightly better team defensive profile, which translate to the 62% projection. Key factor to watch: can Tyrese Maxey outscore or outduel Boston’s wing defenders, or will Boston’s two-way balance keep the game in its favor?
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