NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
51.0%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
49.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 17.3 REB 4.8 AST 6.4 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.2 REB 3.3 AST 3.7 3PM 2.3
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PTS 24.9 REB 7.0 AST 6.4 3PM 2.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 11.3 REB 4.8 AST 1.8 3PM 2.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 12.0 REB 11.3 AST 1.5 3PM 1.1
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 20.2 REB 3.8 AST 6.1 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.6 REB 5.5 AST 6.9 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.3 REB 4.5 AST 2.8 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.2 REB 5.2 AST 1.7 3PM 2.1
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PTS 25.8 REB 9.7 AST 3.2 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.9
DR
115.9
PTS
16.4
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.1
DR
112.9
PTS
18.5
SG
Scoot Henderson
OR
109.6
DR
114.8
PTS
15.1
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.7
DR
111.5
PTS
16.9
SF
Deni Avdija
OR
116.2
DR
115.2
PTS
24.1
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.5
DR
113.4
PTS
13.9
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
112.8
DR
116.2
PTS
13.2
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
119.1
DR
111.5
PTS
11.0
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
128.6
DR
110.1
PTS
11.9
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.7
DR
99.6
PTS
24.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are the pick to win, narrowly: 51.0% probability. Expected starting five — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan. San Antonio: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 225.39 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game and a fairly uptempo matchup. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -3.41, meaning the away side holds about a 3.4-point edge over the home team. Note: the win probability and the point-spread come from two different predictive approaches — one gives a straight winner probability and the other projects the score margin — and both are shown for full transparency, even though they point in slightly different directions.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.4 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - San Antonio Spurs) -3.4 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Portland’s Elo has ticked up over the last five games (+8.6) while San Antonio’s has trended down (-16.6).

Portland Trail Blazers

1527.5 +8.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-24 San Antonio Spurs 1527.5 -5.9
2026-04-21 San Antonio Spurs 1533.4 +14.0
2026-04-19 San Antonio Spurs 1519.4 -4.6
2026-04-12 Sacramento Kings 1524.0 +5.1
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Clippers 1518.9 —

San Antonio Spurs

1709.8 -16.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-24 Portland Trail Blazers 1709.8 +5.9
2026-04-21 Portland Trail Blazers 1703.9 -14.0
2026-04-19 Portland Trail Blazers 1717.9 +4.6
2026-04-12 Denver Nuggets 1713.3 -13.1
2026-04-10 Dallas Mavericks 1726.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
L W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 108 120 -12
San Antonio Spurs 106 103 +3
San Antonio Spurs 98 111 -13
Sacramento Kings 122 110 +12
Los Angeles Clippers 116 97 +19

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 120 108 +12
Portland Trail Blazers 103 106 -3
Portland Trail Blazers 111 98 +13
Denver Nuggets 118 128 -10
Dallas Mavericks 139 120 +19

Game Analysis

The two teams have traded results in their recent mini-series: Portland is 1-2 over the last three (loss 108-120, win 106-103, loss 98-111) while San Antonio is 2-1 (win 120-108, loss 103-106, win 111-98). That inconsistency for Portland — a narrow win sandwiched between two losses — suggests hot-and-cold offense and defensive lapses at times; San Antonio has been steadier head-to-head. Looking at the expected fives, San Antonio’s starters average a higher offensive rating (118.22) and a noticeably better defensive rating (109.78) than Portland’s starters (offensive 116.62, defensive 114.44). San Antonio’s projected starters also average slightly more points per player (17.02 vs 16.14), which helps explain why the spread leans toward the Spurs despite the tight win probability for Portland.

Final Prediction

Portland gets the narrow edge in the win probability, likely reflecting recent momentum and matchup nuances. Watch the big-man matchup — Donovan Clingan’s 128.6 offensive rating versus Victor Wembanyama’s 99.6 defensive rating — as it could decide who controls the paint and swings the final margin.

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