NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
77.9%
VS

Minnesota Timberwolves

Away Team
22.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Denver Nuggets
PTS 26.3 REB 5.0 AST 6.4 3PM 3.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 12.0 REB 5.1 AST 2.9 3PM 1.3
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PTS 16.0 REB 6.3 AST 2.8 3PM 1.9
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PTS 11.8 REB 3.9 AST 2.1 3PM 1.9
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PTS 27.1 REB 12.6 AST 8.2 3PM 1.6
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 6.3 REB 2.5 AST 3.2 3PM 1.6
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PTS 17.0 REB 3.9 AST 3.8 3PM 1.8
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PTS 15.7 REB 5.5 AST 2.5 3PM 1.2
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PTS 21.6 REB 7.3 AST 4.0 3PM 1.4
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PTS 11.2 REB 11.1 AST 1.6 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
123.9
DR
119.9
PTS
25.5
VS
Mike Conley
OR
116.6
DR
114.3
PTS
4.4
SG
Christian Braun
OR
123.0
DR
118.1
PTS
11.8
VS
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
123.9
DR
113.5
PTS
15.6
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
120.2
DR
116.5
PTS
15.8
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.5
DR
115.0
PTS
14.9
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
122.8
DR
118.6
PTS
12.1
VS
Julius Randle
OR
116.2
DR
113.6
PTS
20.9
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
133.7
DR
112.3
PTS
27.5
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
129.1
DR
109.2
PTS
10.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets win (77.9%). Expected starting five — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić. Minnesota: Mike Conley, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game projects to a combined 222.9 points, which suggests a moderately high-scoring affair and a fairly up-tempo matchup. The expected spread is 11.19 in favor of the home side, giving Denver an 11.19-point edge on the scoreboard.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 222.9 Most likely outcome: 222 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Minnesota Timberwolves) 11.2 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Denver’s rating has been falling over the last five games while Minnesota’s has been rising.

Denver Nuggets

1615.7 -30.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-25 Minnesota Timberwolves 1615.7 -11.9
2026-04-23 Minnesota Timberwolves 1627.6 -12.8
2026-04-20 Minnesota Timberwolves 1640.4 -12.7
2026-04-18 Minnesota Timberwolves 1653.1 +7.3
2026-04-12 San Antonio Spurs 1645.8 —

Minnesota Timberwolves

1588.6 +30.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-25 Denver Nuggets 1588.6 +12.0
2026-04-23 Denver Nuggets 1576.6 +12.8
2026-04-20 Denver Nuggets 1563.8 +12.7
2026-04-18 Denver Nuggets 1551.1 -7.4
2026-04-12 New Orleans Pelicans 1558.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 96 112 -16
Minnesota Timberwolves 96 113 -17
Minnesota Timberwolves 114 119 -5
Minnesota Timberwolves 116 105 +11
San Antonio Spurs 128 118 +10

Minnesota Timberwolves

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 112 96 +16
Denver Nuggets 113 96 +17
Denver Nuggets 119 114 +5
Denver Nuggets 105 116 -11
New Orleans Pelicans 132 126 +6

Game Analysis

Recent form heavily favors Minnesota in this specific pairing: Denver has dropped the last three meetings against Minnesota (96-112, 96-113, 114-119), while Minnesota has won those same three games. Those results show Minnesota executing effectively against Denver over the most recent sample, winning by clear margins in each contest. Looking at the starting units, Denver brings a higher average offensive profile — starters average an offensive rating of 124.72 and combine for 18.54 points made per starter — but their average defensive rating is 117.08. Minnesota’s starters average a 120.06 offensive rating with 13.32 points made per starter and a stronger collective defensive rating of 113.12. Put simply: Denver’s starters offer more scoring upside (led by Nikola Jokić’s 133.7 offensive rating), while Minnesota’s unit is tighter on defense (anchored by Rudy Gobert’s 109.2 defensive rating).

Final Prediction

Denver is picked because its starting five supply more scoring firepower (Nikola Jokić’s 133.7 offensive rating and the group’s 124.72 average offensive rating) that can overcome Minnesota’s recent head-to-head edge. The key factor to watch is the interior matchup between Jokić and Gobert and which team can impose its will inside.

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