NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
51.1%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
48.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Phoenix Suns
PTS 12.8 REB 5.2 AST 4.5 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.1 REB 5.4 AST 5.2 3PM 2.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.9 REB 5.3 AST 3.7 3PM 2.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.6 REB 5.4 AST 2.3 3PM 2.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.5 REB 7.4 AST 3.0 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 30.5 REB 4.8 AST 6.0 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.2 REB 4.0 AST 3.2 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.8 REB 3.6 AST 1.4 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.6 REB 7.8 AST 1.4 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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PTS 8.1 REB 8.7 AST 2.3 3PM 0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Collin Gillespie
OR
116.9
DR
115.6
PTS
12.5
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
136.1
DR
108.1
PTS
31.3
SG
Devin Booker
OR
119.0
DR
118.0
PTS
25.8
VS
Ajay Mitchell
OR
120.8
DR
107.5
PTS
13.5
SF
Jalen Green
OR
98.2
DR
115.4
PTS
18.1
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
106.3
DR
111.2
PTS
8.4
PF
Dillon Brooks
OR
108.2
DR
117.2
PTS
20.5
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
125.3
DR
103.0
PTS
17.0
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
118.4
DR
112.9
PTS
6.5
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
125.4
DR
102.6
PTS
9.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The Phoenix Suns are the projected winner with a 51.1% probability. Expected starting fives — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Oso Ighodaro; Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 228.03 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a solid offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -1.92, which favors the away team by about two points. Note: two separate models are reported here — one produces the win probability and the other produces the point spread — and they can point in different directions; both results are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 228.0 Most likely outcome: 228 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Oklahoma City Thunder) -1.9 Most likely outcome: -2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Phoenix’s power rating is modestly rising (+3.6 over five games) while Oklahoma City’s is slightly falling (-3.6 over five games).

Phoenix Suns

1506.5 +3.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-25 Oklahoma City Thunder 1506.5 -5.3
2026-04-22 Oklahoma City Thunder 1511.8 -4.5
2026-04-19 Oklahoma City Thunder 1516.3 -5.8
2026-04-12 Oklahoma City Thunder 1522.1 +19.2
2026-04-10 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.9 —

Oklahoma City Thunder

1717.9 -3.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-25 Phoenix Suns 1717.9 +5.2
2026-04-22 Phoenix Suns 1712.7 +4.6
2026-04-19 Phoenix Suns 1708.1 +5.7
2026-04-12 Phoenix Suns 1702.4 -19.1
2026-04-10 Denver Nuggets 1721.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

1-4 in last 5
L L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 109 121 -12
Oklahoma City Thunder 107 120 -13
Oklahoma City Thunder 84 119 -35
Oklahoma City Thunder 135 103 +32
Los Angeles Lakers 73 101 -28

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 121 109 +12
Phoenix Suns 120 107 +13
Phoenix Suns 119 84 +35
Phoenix Suns 103 135 -32
Denver Nuggets 107 127 -20

Game Analysis

Oklahoma City has won the last three meetings decisively (119–84, 120–107, 121–109), leaving Phoenix on a three-game losing streak against this opponent and showing consistent control on both ends in the recent sample. Phoenix’s 84-point outing stands out as a low-water mark offensively, while OKC has been steady and efficient throughout. Looking at the expected starters, Phoenix’s five average offensive rating is 112.14, defensive rating 115.82, and average points made per starter 16.68. Oklahoma City’s group averages an offensive rating of 122.78, defensive rating 106.48, and 15.88 points per starter — a combination that highlights OKC’s stronger offense and cleaner defense, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.3 points) as the obvious engine.

Final Prediction

Phoenix gets a narrow edge in the win probability, but this is a close matchup where small swings matter. The key factor to watch is whether Phoenix can limit Shai and the Thunder’s interior efficiency from Holmgren/Hartenstein while finding more consistent scoring than in their worst recent outing.

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