NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Boston Celtics
Home Team
75.4%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
24.6%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Boston Celtics
Derrick White
PTS
15.4
REB
4.0
AST
4.8
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jaylen Brown
PTS
27.8
REB
6.5
AST
5.2
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jayson Tatum
PTS
23.9
REB
8.9
AST
6.8
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Sam Hauser
PTS
9.1
REB
4.1
AST
1.5
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Neemias Queta
PTS
9.8
REB
8.0
AST
1.3
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
25.5
REB
4.1
AST
5.6
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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VJ Edgecombe
PTS
16.0
REB
5.7
AST
3.9
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kelly Oubre Jr.
PTS
13.6
REB
5.5
AST
2.0
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paul George
PTS
16.7
REB
5.1
AST
3.3
3PM
2.4
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Joel Embiid
PTS
27.5
REB
8.8
AST
4.7
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Derrick White
OR
117.9
DR
112.8
PTS
16.1
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.4
DR
116.1
PTS
28.1
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.4
DR
113.1
PTS
28.6
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.6
DR
116.4
PTS
15.9
SF
Jayson Tatum
OR
118.4
DR
107.7
PTS
22.4
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
107.9
DR
116.6
PTS
13.8
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
119.5
DR
115.6
PTS
9.1
VS
Paul George
OR
113.5
DR
113.1
PTS
17.3
C
Neemias Queta
OR
139.8
DR
108.0
PTS
10.2
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
117.6
DR
114.9
PTS
26.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Boston Celtics to win (75.4% probability).
Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta. Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 225.2 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with both offenses capable of putting up points. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 7.39 in favor of the home side, which aligns with Boston being the projected favorite and gives the Celtics a roughly one-possession-plus edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.2
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Philadelphia 76ers)
7.4
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Boston’s power rating has ticked up over the last five games (+7.0) while Philadelphia’s has slipped (-7.1), indicating rising Celtics momentum and a downtrend for the 76ers.
Boston Celtics
1672.6
+7.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1672.6 | +8.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1664.2 | +7.1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1657.1 | -15.3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1672.4 | +6.8 |
| 2026-04-12 | Orlando Magic | 1665.6 | — |
Philadelphia 76ers
1518.6
-7.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Boston Celtics | 1518.6 | -8.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Boston Celtics | 1527.0 | -7.2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Boston Celtics | 1534.2 | +15.4 |
| 2026-04-19 | Boston Celtics | 1518.8 | -6.9 |
| 2026-04-12 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1525.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Boston Celtics
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 128 | 96 | +32 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 100 | +8 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 97 | 111 | -14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 123 | 91 | +32 | |
| Orlando Magic | 113 | 108 | +5 |
Philadelphia 76ers
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 96 | 128 | -32 | |
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 108 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 111 | 97 | +14 | |
| Boston Celtics | 91 | 123 | -32 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 126 | 106 | +20 |
Game Analysis
These teams have traded results in their last three meetings: Boston won two (most recently 128-96 and 108-100) and lost one (97-111), while Philadelphia’s ledger is the mirror image. The Celtics’ 128-96 win stands out as a decisive performance and suggests Boston is executing at both ends in recent matchups. Philly’s two losses to Boston in that span point to offensive inconsistency against Boston’s schemes.
Looking at the expected starters, Boston’s five average an OFFENSIVE RATING of 122.0 and a DEFENSIVE RATING of 111.44 with an average 17.28 points made per starter, reflecting balanced scoring and stout defense. Philadelphia’s projected starters average an OFFENSIVE RATING of 114.4 and a DEFENSIVE RATING of 115.42 with 20.38 points made per starter — strong individual scoring from Maxey and Embiid but noticeably lower team offensive efficiency and weaker defense on paper.
Final Prediction
Boston’s combination of higher offensive efficiency (122.0 vs 114.4) and better team defense (111.44 vs 115.42), plus short-term momentum, is why they’re favored. Watch how the 76ers try to limit Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown while getting Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey efficient looks — that matchup control will decide the outcome.
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