NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
56.0%
VS
Atlanta Hawks
Away Team
44.0%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.8
REB
3.6
AST
6.3
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
12.8
REB
8.8
AST
5.7
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
10.8
REB
3.4
AST
3.0
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
OG Anunoby
PTS
17.1
REB
6.7
AST
2.5
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
20.0
REB
11.7
AST
4.4
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
21.6
REB
4.2
AST
4.5
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dyson Daniels
PTS
11.3
REB
7.2
AST
6.0
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
18.7
REB
4.2
AST
3.5
3PM
3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Johnson
PTS
22.4
REB
9.0
AST
6.0
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
14.1
REB
7.5
AST
2.5
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
120.2
DR
116.5
PTS
26.0
VS
CJ McCollum
OR
111.9
DR
114.5
PTS
19.2
SG
Josh Hart
OR
119.0
DR
110.7
PTS
11.9
VS
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.5
DR
111.5
PTS
11.6
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
123.8
DR
113.9
PTS
14.1
VS
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.0
DR
116.1
PTS
20.5
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
119.0
DR
112.3
PTS
16.9
VS
Jalen Johnson
OR
115.3
DR
111.0
PTS
22.4
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
123.3
DR
109.6
PTS
20.1
VS
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.8
DR
111.7
PTS
15.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
I project the New York Knicks to win this matchup with a 56.0% probability.
Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 224.69 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and an up-tempo contest with plenty of offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 3.61, meaning the home team receives a modest 3.61-point advantage heading into the game.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.7
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Atlanta Hawks)
3.6
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Over the last five games the Knicks’ power rating has dipped slightly (-1.6) while the Hawks have inched up (+1.6), so New York is cooling a bit as Atlanta trends upward.
New York Knicks
1613.7
-1.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Atlanta Hawks | 1613.7 | +11.7 |
| 2026-04-23 | Atlanta Hawks | 1602.0 | -10.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Atlanta Hawks | 1612.4 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.0 | +8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charlotte Hornets | 1615.3 | — |
Atlanta Hawks
1577.0
+1.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | New York Knicks | 1577.0 | -11.7 |
| 2026-04-23 | New York Knicks | 1588.7 | +10.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | New York Knicks | 1578.3 | +11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | New York Knicks | 1566.7 | -8.7 |
| 2026-04-12 | Miami Heat | 1575.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New York Knicks
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 114 | 98 | +16 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 108 | 109 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 106 | 107 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 113 | 102 | +11 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 96 | 110 | -14 |
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 in last 5
L
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 98 | 114 | -16 | |
| New York Knicks | 109 | 108 | +1 | |
| New York Knicks | 107 | 106 | +1 | |
| New York Knicks | 102 | 113 | -11 | |
| Miami Heat | 117 | 143 | -26 |
Game Analysis
These teams have traded tight results: New York’s most recent meeting was a 114-98 win but their other two games were 108-109 and 106-107 losses — all very close affairs. Atlanta’s last three vs. New York mirror that pattern (wins of 109-108 and 107-106, plus that 98-114 loss), indicating small margins will decide this series rather than runaway performances.
Looking at the projected starting units, the Knicks’ five average an offensive rating of 121.06 and a defensive rating of 112.6 with combined scoring of 88.9 (17.8 per starter), while the Hawks’ starters average a 115.50 offensive rating, 113.0 defensive rating and combined 88.8 points (17.8 per starter). New York’s clear edge on offensive rating (121.06 vs. 115.50) and a hair better team defense underpins their advantage; individual standouts include Brunson (OFF 120.2) and Towns (OFF 123.3) versus Jalen Johnson’s 22.4 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s 20.5.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ higher offensive profile from the starting five and a slightly stronger defensive mark give them the edge in a close game. The key factor to watch will be whether New York can limit Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker while getting pushed possessions from Brunson and Towns.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel