NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
78.0%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
22.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 20.7 REB 4.2 AST 6.2 3PM 2.2
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PTS 20.3 REB 5.4 AST 7.1 3PM 1.4
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PTS 15.9 REB 4.8 AST 3.0 3PM 2.5
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PTS 9.8 REB 5.1 AST 1.7 3PM 2.2
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PTS 25.0 REB 10.2 AST 3.0 3PM 1.7
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AWAY Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 17.6 REB 5.1 AST 6.2 3PM 2.5
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PTS 15.6 REB 3.5 AST 3.5 3PM 2.2
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PTS 24.0 REB 7.2 AST 6.0 3PM 2.0
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PTS 10.9 REB 5.1 AST 1.8 3PM 2.3
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PTS 11.2 REB 10.9 AST 1.3 3PM 1.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.3
DR
112.8
PTS
18.6
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.6
DR
116.0
PTS
16.5
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
116.8
DR
111.3
PTS
16.9
VS
Scoot Henderson
OR
106.9
DR
115.0
PTS
14.6
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.4
DR
113.2
PTS
13.9
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
116.2
DR
115.3
PTS
24.1
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
119.2
DR
111.4
PTS
11.0
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
112.6
DR
116.2
PTS
13.1
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.6
DR
99.2
PTS
24.9
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
127.7
DR
110.1
PTS
11.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win this one — projected probability 78.0%. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 225.11 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with both teams able to score but not a runaway offensive shootout. The expected spread (home − away) is 10.32, which gives the home team — San Antonio in this matchup — about a 10-point edge.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.1 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Portland Trail Blazers) 10.3 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s power rating has ticked up (+2.7 over five games) while Portland’s has slipped (-2.7), indicating rising Spurs momentum and falling Blazers form.

San Antonio Spurs

1716.0 +2.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-26 Portland Trail Blazers 1716.0 +6.2
2026-04-24 Portland Trail Blazers 1709.8 +5.9
2026-04-21 Portland Trail Blazers 1703.9 -14.0
2026-04-19 Portland Trail Blazers 1717.9 +4.6
2026-04-12 Denver Nuggets 1713.3 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1521.3 -2.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-26 San Antonio Spurs 1521.3 -6.2
2026-04-24 San Antonio Spurs 1527.5 -5.9
2026-04-21 San Antonio Spurs 1533.4 +14.0
2026-04-19 San Antonio Spurs 1519.4 -4.6
2026-04-12 Sacramento Kings 1524.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 114 93 +21
Portland Trail Blazers 120 108 +12
Portland Trail Blazers 103 106 -3
Portland Trail Blazers 111 98 +13
Denver Nuggets 118 128 -10

Portland Trail Blazers

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 93 114 -21
San Antonio Spurs 108 120 -12
San Antonio Spurs 106 103 +3
San Antonio Spurs 98 111 -13
Sacramento Kings 122 110 +12

Game Analysis

The last three meetings show the Spurs winning two of three (114-93, 120-108) after splitting a close one (loss 103-106), while Portland mirrored that pattern. San Antonio’s recent results point to more consistent two-way execution, whereas Portland has struggled to close out the higher-scoring affairs. Those back-and-forth scores underscore that matchups and game plan adjustments have mattered in this season series. Looking at the projected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 118.26, defensive rating of 109.58, and 17.06 points made per starter — a balanced, defensively advantaged group led by Victor Wembanyama’s 120.6/99.2 two-way profile and 24.9 scoring mark. Portland’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 115.80, defensive rating of 114.52, and 16.02 points made per starter; Deni Avdija (24.1) and Donovan Clingan’s 127.7 offensive rating are bright spots, but the collective defensive numbers are worse than San Antonio’s.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s superior two-way numbers and recent momentum give them the clear edge in this matchup. Watch how well Portland defends Victor Wembanyama and whether they can force turnovers to disrupt the Spurs’ rhythm — that battle will likely decide the margin.

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