NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers

Home Team
74.1%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
25.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 22.5 REB 4.4 AST 7.5 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.4 REB 4.9 AST 5.5 3PM 3.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.6 REB 4.4 AST 1.7 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.2 REB 8.7 AST 4.0 3PM 0.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.8 REB 8.8 AST 1.7 3PM 0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Toronto Raptors
PTS 7.4 REB 3.1 AST 1.6 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.2 REB 5.0 AST 3.4 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.9 REB 5.2 AST 3.1 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.2 REB 6.7 AST 5.7 3PM 0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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PTS 8.0 REB 6.4 AST 1.4 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
James Harden
OR
121.8
DR
117.4
PTS
20.7
VS
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
110.1
DR
114.0
PTS
7.4
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.3
DR
115.6
PTS
27.7
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.7
DR
114.5
PTS
21.2
SF
Dean Wade
OR
130.9
DR
114.7
PTS
5.7
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.4
DR
114.5
PTS
19.6
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
120.0
DR
112.4
PTS
18.0
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
116.4
DR
110.3
PTS
18.5
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
129.1
DR
111.2
PTS
14.9
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.1
DR
110.1
PTS
10.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are predicted to win (74.1% probability). Expected starting five — Cleveland: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen. Toronto: Ja'Kobe Walter, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined 216.86 points, signaling a moderately high-scoring affair with enough offense from both sides to keep the scoreboard active. The expected spread is 9.41 points in favor of the home side, giving a sizable cushion to whoever is hosting; that margin aligns with Cleveland being the clear favorite here.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 216.9 Most likely outcome: 216 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Toronto Raptors) 9.4 Most likely outcome: 9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Cleveland’s rating has drifted down recently while Toronto’s has been on the rise.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1594.9 -10.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-26 Toronto Raptors 1594.9 -11.6
2026-04-23 Toronto Raptors 1606.5 -14.1
2026-04-20 Toronto Raptors 1620.6 +7.0
2026-04-18 Toronto Raptors 1613.6 +7.8
2026-04-12 Washington Wizards 1605.8 —

Toronto Raptors

1545.0 +10.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-26 Cleveland Cavaliers 1545.0 +11.5
2026-04-23 Cleveland Cavaliers 1533.5 +14.1
2026-04-20 Cleveland Cavaliers 1519.4 -7.0
2026-04-18 Cleveland Cavaliers 1526.4 -7.8
2026-04-12 Brooklyn Nets 1534.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 89 93 -4
Toronto Raptors 104 126 -22
Toronto Raptors 115 105 +10
Toronto Raptors 126 113 +13
Washington Wizards 130 117 +13

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 93 89 +4
Cleveland Cavaliers 126 104 +22
Cleveland Cavaliers 105 115 -10
Cleveland Cavaliers 113 126 -13
Brooklyn Nets 136 101 +35

Game Analysis

The last three matchups show Toronto with two wins and Cleveland with one — Cleveland’s most recent sequence is two losses around a prior victory, while Toronto has flipped momentum with back-to-back wins before their latest loss. Those results underline a competitive short series where adjustments and matchups will matter more than form alone. Looking at the projected starters, Cleveland’s five average to an offensive rating of about 124.4 and a combined 87.0 points from the group, while allowing a defensive rating near 114.3. Toronto’s projected starters average an offensive rating of about 115.7, a combined 77.0 points, and a defensive rating around 112.7. In short, Cleveland brings the clearer offensive firepower (Donovan Mitchell 27.7, James Harden 20.7) while Toronto’s unit grades slightly better on defense, led by Jakob Poeltl’s strong offensive rating.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s edge comes from superior offensive production from its starters and the cushion implied by the spread. Watch how Cleveland’s offense — particularly Mitchell and Harden — navigates Toronto’s defense and how the battle between Jarrett Allen and Jakob Poeltl shapes the paint.

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