NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Detroit Pistons
Home Team
70.6%
VS
Orlando Magic
Away Team
29.4%
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HOME Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
25.7
REB
6.3
AST
8.0
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
10.7
REB
6.8
AST
3.2
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
10.7
REB
2.9
AST
2.0
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
17.4
REB
6.3
AST
3.0
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
17.1
REB
10.4
AST
2.2
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
Jalen Suggs
PTS
15.1
REB
4.0
AST
4.9
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Desmond Bane
PTS
18.2
REB
4.1
AST
3.2
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Franz Wagner
PTS
19.7
REB
5.1
AST
3.5
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Paolo Banchero
PTS
23.6
REB
8.2
AST
5.4
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Wendell Carter Jr.
PTS
10.8
REB
7.8
AST
2.0
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.0
DR
110.3
PTS
24.2
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
106.6
DR
108.9
PTS
13.8
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
113.9
DR
104.7
PTS
9.9
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
118.6
DR
116.0
PTS
20.0
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.9
DR
115.0
PTS
12.0
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
119.6
DR
111.8
PTS
20.2
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
119.1
DR
110.5
PTS
13.6
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
110.9
DR
114.0
PTS
22.1
C
Jalen Duren
OR
130.9
DR
107.9
PTS
19.0
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.3
DR
112.9
PTS
11.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons to win (70.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Expected starting five — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 219.93, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game and a decent pace from both teams. The expected spread is Home - Away = 7.99, giving the home team (Detroit) roughly an eight-point advantage on paper.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
219.9
Most likely outcome: 219 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Orlando Magic)
8.0
Most likely outcome: 8 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Detroit’s power rating has been falling over the last five games while Orlando’s has been rising.
Detroit Pistons
1635.3
-31.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Orlando Magic | 1635.3 | -11.9 |
| 2026-04-25 | Orlando Magic | 1647.2 | -12.6 |
| 2026-04-22 | Orlando Magic | 1659.8 | +7.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Orlando Magic | 1652.8 | -13.9 |
| 2026-04-12 | Indiana Pacers | 1666.7 | — |
Orlando Magic
1571.9
+31.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Detroit Pistons | 1571.9 | +12.0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Detroit Pistons | 1559.9 | +12.6 |
| 2026-04-22 | Detroit Pistons | 1547.3 | -7.1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Detroit Pistons | 1554.4 | +14.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Boston Celtics | 1540.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Detroit Pistons
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 88 | 94 | -6 | |
| Orlando Magic | 105 | 113 | -8 | |
| Orlando Magic | 98 | 83 | +15 | |
| Orlando Magic | 101 | 112 | -11 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 133 | 121 | +12 |
Orlando Magic
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 94 | 88 | +6 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 113 | 105 | +8 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 83 | 98 | -15 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 112 | 101 | +11 | |
| Boston Celtics | 108 | 113 | -5 |
Game Analysis
The recent mini-series favors Orlando, which won two of the last three meetings (94-88 and 113-105) while Detroit took the earlier matchup 98-83; those results show Orlando has had the upper hand in the short term but games have been competitive. Detroit’s recent scores (88, 105, 98) and Orlando’s (94, 113, 83) indicate both teams can swing between slow defensive scraps and quicker, higher-scoring games.
Looking at the projected starting units, Detroit’s five average an offensive rating of 121.8, a defensive rating of 109.7, and 15.7 points made per starter, while Orlando’s projected five average an offensive rating of 115.6, a defensive rating of 112.7, and 17.6 points made per starter. Detroit’s starters show stronger efficiency on both ends by these measures, with Jalen Duren (ORtg 130.9) standing out offensively and the Pistons’ collective defensive rating giving them a structural edge.
Final Prediction
Detroit gets the nod because its starting five are more efficient on offense and slightly better on defense, and the home-court spread amplifies that advantage. Key factor to watch: whether Detroit can contain Orlando’s higher per-starter scoring (especially Banchero, Wagner and Bane) while letting Duren and Cunningham impose their efficiency.
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