NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Atlanta Hawks
Home Team
46.4%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
53.6%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
21.3
REB
4.3
AST
4.7
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dyson Daniels
PTS
12.1
REB
7.0
AST
6.2
3PM
0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
18.9
REB
4.1
AST
3.8
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Johnson
PTS
22.8
REB
9.4
AST
6.4
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
14.6
REB
7.5
AST
2.9
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.0
REB
3.5
AST
6.1
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
11.6
REB
7.7
AST
5.2
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
10.3
REB
3.3
AST
2.8
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
OG Anunoby
PTS
15.6
REB
6.1
AST
2.1
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
18.5
REB
11.2
AST
4.0
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
CJ McCollum
OR
110.5
DR
114.9
PTS
18.9
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
120.7
DR
116.4
PTS
26.2
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.9
DR
111.9
PTS
11.6
VS
Josh Hart
OR
119.0
DR
110.6
PTS
11.8
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.1
DR
116.3
PTS
20.4
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
123.6
DR
113.8
PTS
14.0
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
115.1
DR
111.2
PTS
22.3
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
119.9
DR
112.1
PTS
16.9
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
117.3
DR
112.0
PTS
15.1
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
123.5
DR
109.4
PTS
20.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model projects the New York Knicks to win (53.6% probability). Expected starting fives — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected combined total is 225.88 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring outing and a reasonably uptempo game environment. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 0.85, a very small edge for the home side. Note that two separate models are used here — one for the win probability and one for point spread — and both outputs are provided for transparency; they can align or diverge on any given matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.9
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - New York Knicks)
0.8
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Over the last five entries the Hawks are essentially flat (slight decline) while the Knicks show a small uptick in momentum.
Atlanta Hawks
1566.5
-0.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | New York Knicks | 1566.5 | -10.5 |
| 2026-04-25 | New York Knicks | 1577.0 | -11.7 |
| 2026-04-23 | New York Knicks | 1588.7 | +10.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | New York Knicks | 1578.3 | +11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | New York Knicks | 1566.7 | — |
New York Knicks
1624.2
+0.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.2 | +10.5 |
| 2026-04-25 | Atlanta Hawks | 1613.7 | +11.7 |
| 2026-04-23 | Atlanta Hawks | 1602.0 | -10.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Atlanta Hawks | 1612.4 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-18 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 97 | 126 | -29 | |
| New York Knicks | 98 | 114 | -16 | |
| New York Knicks | 109 | 108 | +1 | |
| New York Knicks | 107 | 106 | +1 | |
| New York Knicks | 102 | 113 | -11 |
New York Knicks
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 126 | 97 | +29 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 114 | 98 | +16 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 108 | 109 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 106 | 107 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 113 | 102 | +11 |
Game Analysis
The recent series between these teams favors New York: the Knicks beat Atlanta 126–97 and 114–98 before dropping a 109–108 game, leaving New York 2–1 in the last three meetings and Atlanta coming off back-to-back losses to the Knicks. Atlanta’s lone recent win was a one-point game, suggesting competitive but inconsistent results.
Looking at the expected starting units, Atlanta’s five average offensive rating is 115.38, defensive rating 113.26, and average points made per starter 17.66. New York’s starters average a higher offensive rating at 121.34, a slightly better defensive rating at 112.46, and 17.78 points made per starter. That offensive gap (121.34 vs 115.38) is the clearest numerical advantage and helps explain the projection.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ edge comes down to superior starting-unit offense and recent head-to-head success. A key factor to watch: whether New York’s high offensive rating converts into consistent scoring from Brunson and Towns against Atlanta’s defense.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel