NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves
Home Team
45.5%
VS
Denver Nuggets
Away Team
54.5%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
Mike Conley
PTS
7.1
REB
2.6
AST
3.7
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ayo Dosunmu
PTS
17.6
REB
4.2
AST
4.2
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jaden McDaniels
PTS
16.6
REB
5.6
AST
2.6
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Julius Randle
PTS
22.7
REB
7.8
AST
4.5
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Rudy Gobert
PTS
11.6
REB
11.2
AST
1.6
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murray
PTS
25.8
REB
4.8
AST
6.1
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Christian Braun
PTS
11.4
REB
4.8
AST
2.6
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Aaron Gordon
PTS
15.6
REB
6.1
AST
2.6
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cameron Johnson
PTS
11.9
REB
4.1
AST
2.1
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Nikola Jokić
PTS
27.2
REB
12.7
AST
8.5
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Mike Conley
OR
116.6
DR
114.5
PTS
4.4
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
123.6
DR
119.8
PTS
25.4
SG
Ayo Dosunmu
OR
123.9
DR
113.8
PTS
15.7
VS
Christian Braun
OR
123.2
DR
117.9
PTS
11.7
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.1
DR
115.1
PTS
14.9
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
120.2
DR
116.5
PTS
15.8
PF
Julius Randle
OR
116.3
DR
113.7
PTS
21.0
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
123.1
DR
118.5
PTS
12.2
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
129.0
DR
109.2
PTS
10.7
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
133.8
DR
112.2
PTS
27.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Denver Nuggets win (54.5% probability).
Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley, Ayo Dosunmu, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.
Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 225.02 points, indicating a fairly high-scoring game and a decent offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -5.47, giving roughly a 5.5-point edge to the away team, which aligns with Denver being favored in this projection.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.0
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Denver Nuggets)
-5.5
Most likely outcome: -6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Minnesota’s power rating is rising over the last five games while Denver’s has been sliding.
Minnesota Timberwolves
1579.5
+28.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Denver Nuggets | 1579.5 | -9.1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Denver Nuggets | 1588.6 | +12.0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Denver Nuggets | 1576.6 | +12.8 |
| 2026-04-20 | Denver Nuggets | 1563.8 | +12.7 |
| 2026-04-18 | Denver Nuggets | 1551.1 | — |
Denver Nuggets
1624.8
-28.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1624.8 | +9.1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1615.7 | -11.9 |
| 2026-04-23 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1627.6 | -12.8 |
| 2026-04-20 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1640.4 | -12.7 |
| 2026-04-18 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1653.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 113 | 125 | -12 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 112 | 96 | +16 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 113 | 96 | +17 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 119 | 114 | +5 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 105 | 116 | -11 |
Denver Nuggets
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 125 | 113 | +12 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 96 | 112 | -16 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 96 | 113 | -17 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 114 | 119 | -5 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 116 | 105 | +11 |
Game Analysis
These teams have traded results in their recent meetings: Minnesota won 112-96 and 113-96 before dropping the most recent matchup 113-125. Minnesota is 2-1 across those three games, coming off an emphatic pair of wins prior to the latest loss. Denver went 1-2 over the same stretch but picked up the most recent 125-113 win to split the short series.
Looking at the starters, Minnesota’s five average an offensive rating of about 120.0 and a defensive rating near 113.3, with their starters combining for 66.7 points (13.34 per starter). Denver’s projected starters carry a stronger offensive profile — roughly a 124.8 offensive rating and a 117.0 defensive rating — and combine for 92.6 points (18.52 per starter). That gap in scoring and offensive efficiency, led by Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, is the primary reason the projection tilts Denver’s way, while Minnesota’s defense and Rudy Gobert’s 109.2 defensive rating can still make this a contested game.
Final Prediction
Denver’s superior offensive ratings and higher points per starter give them the edge in a matchup where Minnesota’s improving form and interior defense can keep it close. Watch Nikola Jokić’s impact and how Minnesota defends him — that matchup is the key swing factor.
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