NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
40.7%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
59.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 26.4 REB 4.4 AST 5.9 3PM 3.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.4 REB 5.7 AST 3.6 3PM 2.3
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PTS 13.2 REB 5.4 AST 1.9 3PM 1.9
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PTS 17.6 REB 5.2 AST 3.6 3PM 2.6
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PTS 29.1 REB 8.0 AST 4.9 3PM 1.9
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AWAY Boston Celtics
PTS 14.3 REB 4.1 AST 4.7 3PM 2.8
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PTS 26.4 REB 6.6 AST 5.0 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.3 REB 9.2 AST 6.5 3PM 3.3
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 8.6 REB 4.3 AST 1.4 3PM 2.7
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PTS 9.4 REB 8.5 AST 1.2 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.5
DR
115.8
PTS
28.1
VS
Derrick White
OR
117.4
DR
112.9
PTS
16.0
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.7
DR
116.3
PTS
15.9
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.2
DR
113.1
PTS
28.5
SF
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
107.4
DR
116.4
PTS
13.6
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
117.1
DR
108.4
PTS
22.4
PF
Paul George
OR
113.6
DR
112.7
PTS
17.3
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
119.1
DR
115.7
PTS
9.1
C
Joel Embiid
OR
117.8
DR
114.8
PTS
27.0
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
139.5
DR
108.2
PTS
10.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Boston Celtics are the pick to win (59.3% probability). Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid. Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 218.81 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with both offenses capable of scoring but not an all-out shootout. The expected spread (Home − Away) is −0.51, a near-neutral number that implies the away team is favored by roughly half a point — essentially a coin flip on home-court advantage.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 218.8 Most likely outcome: 218 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Boston Celtics) -0.5 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Philadelphia’s power rating has trended up (+15.2 over five games) while Boston’s has drifted down slightly (−15.1 over five games).

Philadelphia 76ers

1534.0 +15.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-28 Boston Celtics 1534.0 +15.4
2026-04-26 Boston Celtics 1518.6 -8.4
2026-04-24 Boston Celtics 1527.0 -7.2
2026-04-21 Boston Celtics 1534.2 +15.4
2026-04-19 Boston Celtics 1518.8 —

Boston Celtics

1657.3 -15.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-28 Philadelphia 76ers 1657.3 -15.3
2026-04-26 Philadelphia 76ers 1672.6 +8.4
2026-04-24 Philadelphia 76ers 1664.2 +7.1
2026-04-21 Philadelphia 76ers 1657.1 -15.3
2026-04-19 Philadelphia 76ers 1672.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Philadelphia 76ers

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 113 97 +16
Boston Celtics 96 128 -32
Boston Celtics 100 108 -8
Boston Celtics 111 97 +14
Boston Celtics 91 123 -32

Boston Celtics

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 97 113 -16
Philadelphia 76ers 128 96 +32
Philadelphia 76ers 108 100 +8
Philadelphia 76ers 97 111 -14
Philadelphia 76ers 123 91 +32

Game Analysis

These two teams split the last three meetings: Boston won two (108-100, 128-96) before Philadelphia took the most recent game 113-97. That recent 113-97 result shows Philadelphia can flip the script quickly, but the sample also highlights volatility — each side has had dominant and lopsided outcomes against the other in short order. Looking at the projected starters, Philadelphia’s five average an offensive rating of 114.4, defensive rating of 115.2, and average 20.4 points made per starter. Boston’s projected five are stronger offensively with an average offensive rating of 121.5, a cleaner defensive rating of 111.7, and average 17.2 points made per starter. Boston’s higher collective offensive efficiency and lower defensive rating give them an analytical edge, while Philadelphia leans on heavier individual scoring averages from Maxey (28.1) and Embiid (27.0).

Final Prediction

Boston’s edge comes from a more efficient starting unit and overall higher ratings, which explains the 59.3% lean. Key factor to watch: how Philadelphia’s top scorers (Maxey and Embiid) are contained by Boston’s starting defense and whether Boston’s efficient five can sustain their offensive rating against Philly’s size.

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