NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
42.3%
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers
Away Team
57.7%
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HOME Toronto Raptors
Jamal Shead
PTS
8.5
REB
2.9
AST
6.0
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ja'Kobe Walter
PTS
8.8
REB
3.4
AST
2.1
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
RJ Barrett
PTS
21.7
REB
5.9
AST
4.2
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Scottie Barnes
PTS
21.4
REB
6.9
AST
6.4
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jakob Poeltl
PTS
8.8
REB
7.0
AST
1.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
22.0
REB
4.8
AST
7.0
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
25.6
REB
4.8
AST
5.2
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Max Strus
PTS
11.1
REB
5.1
AST
2.0
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
17.9
REB
8.7
AST
3.6
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarrett Allen
PTS
13.1
REB
8.4
AST
1.7
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jamal Shead
OR
111.9
DR
115.3
PTS
6.7
VS
James Harden
OR
121.5
DR
117.2
PTS
20.8
SG
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
110.3
DR
114.1
PTS
7.6
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.1
DR
115.6
PTS
27.6
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
115.4
DR
114.7
PTS
19.7
VS
Max Strus
OR
113.3
DR
119.8
PTS
11.1
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
116.3
DR
110.4
PTS
18.4
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
120.3
DR
112.4
PTS
18.1
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
128.0
DR
110.3
PTS
10.4
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.6
DR
111.4
PTS
14.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (57.7% probability).
Expected starting five — Toronto Raptors: Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 222.59 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a reasonably brisk pace. The expected spread (Home − Away = −1.64) implies a slim advantage for the away team by about 1.6 points.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.6
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Cleveland Cavaliers)
-1.6
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Toronto’s power rating has ticked up over the last five games, while Cleveland’s has dipped modestly.
Toronto Raptors
1537.0
+10.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1537.0 | -8.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1545.0 | +11.5 |
| 2026-04-23 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1533.5 | +14.1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1519.4 | -7.0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1526.4 | — |
Cleveland Cavaliers
1603.0
-10.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Toronto Raptors | 1603.0 | +8.1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Toronto Raptors | 1594.9 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-23 | Toronto Raptors | 1606.5 | -14.1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Toronto Raptors | 1620.6 | +7.0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Toronto Raptors | 1613.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Toronto Raptors
2-3 in last 5
L
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 120 | 125 | -5 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 93 | 89 | +4 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 126 | 104 | +22 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 105 | 115 | -10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 113 | 126 | -13 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-2 in last 5
W
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 125 | 120 | +5 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 89 | 93 | -4 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 104 | 126 | -22 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 115 | 105 | +10 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 126 | 113 | +13 |
Game Analysis
Across the last three meetings the teams have traded results: Toronto is 2-1 in that span (wins of 93-89 and 126-104, plus a 120-125 loss), while Cleveland is 1-2 (a 125-120 win bookended by two losses). That back-and-forth suggests no clear momentum sweep — each club has shown the ability to impose its game plan on a given night. Recent scores also support the prediction for another high-scoring affair.
Looking at the expected lineups, Cleveland’s five posts an average offensive rating of 120.76, a defensive rating of 115.28, and average points made per starter of 18.48. Toronto’s starters average a 116.38 offensive rating, a 112.96 defensive rating, and 12.56 points made per starter. The Cavs present the stronger offensive profile (notably Donovan Mitchell and James Harden), while Toronto brings the marginally better overall defense and rim presence through Jakob Poeltl.
Final Prediction
Cleveland’s edge comes from a superior offensive starting five and top-end scoring that can overcome small dips in its recent form. Watch the Poeltl vs. Allen interior battle and how well Toronto’s defense contains Mitchell and Harden — that matchup will likely decide the outcome.
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