NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Boston Celtics
Home Team
63.5%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
36.5%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Boston Celtics
Derrick White
PTS
14.8
REB
4.1
AST
4.9
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jaylen Brown
PTS
26.9
REB
6.8
AST
5.3
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jayson Tatum
PTS
23.4
REB
9.7
AST
6.7
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Sam Hauser
PTS
9.0
REB
4.4
AST
1.6
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Neemias Queta
PTS
9.7
REB
9.7
AST
1.5
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
25.6
REB
4.3
AST
5.3
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
VJ Edgecombe
PTS
15.3
REB
5.7
AST
3.1
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kelly Oubre Jr.
PTS
12.3
REB
5.3
AST
1.7
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paul George
PTS
17.1
REB
5.1
AST
3.4
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Joel Embiid
PTS
27.3
REB
7.9
AST
4.5
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Derrick White
OR
117.3
DR
112.8
PTS
15.9
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.6
DR
115.6
PTS
28.1
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
113.6
DR
113.1
PTS
28.4
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.8
DR
116.0
PTS
15.8
SF
Jayson Tatum
OR
116.2
DR
108.4
PTS
22.2
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
107.3
DR
116.0
PTS
13.6
PF
Sam Hauser
OR
118.8
DR
115.6
PTS
9.1
VS
Paul George
OR
113.3
DR
112.3
PTS
17.4
C
Neemias Queta
OR
138.7
DR
108.0
PTS
10.0
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
117.5
DR
114.3
PTS
26.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Boston Celtics are the pick to win — probability 63.5%.
Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta. Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined total of 221.66 points, pointing to a moderately fast, scoring game rather than a grind-it-out defensive battle. The expected spread (home - away) is 6.86, favoring the home team by roughly seven points and giving Boston a clear edge on the line.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
221.7
Most likely outcome: 221 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Philadelphia 76ers)
6.9
Most likely outcome: 6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Boston’s power rating has fallen over the last five games (down 13.4), while Philadelphia’s has risen (up 13.3), showing opposite momentum.
Boston Celtics
1643.7
-13.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1643.7 | -13.6 |
| 2026-04-28 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1657.3 | -15.3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1672.6 | +8.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1664.2 | +7.1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1657.1 | — |
Philadelphia 76ers
1547.5
+13.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Boston Celtics | 1547.5 | +13.5 |
| 2026-04-28 | Boston Celtics | 1534.0 | +15.4 |
| 2026-04-26 | Boston Celtics | 1518.6 | -8.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Boston Celtics | 1527.0 | -7.2 |
| 2026-04-21 | Boston Celtics | 1534.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Boston Celtics
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 93 | 106 | -13 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 97 | 113 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 128 | 96 | +32 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 100 | +8 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 97 | 111 | -14 |
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 106 | 93 | +13 | |
| Boston Celtics | 113 | 97 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 96 | 128 | -32 | |
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 108 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 111 | 97 | +14 |
Game Analysis
In the last three meetings listed, Boston went 1-2 against Philadelphia, with losses on 4/28 (97-113) and 4/30 (93-106) and a win on 4/26 (128-96); Philadelphia’s recent results mirror that, taking the two most recent games after an earlier loss. That pattern suggests Philly has had the upper hand in the most recent matchups, but Boston’s lone blowout win shows volatility in these meetings.
Looking at the projected starters, Boston’s five average an offensive rating of 120.92 and a defensive rating of 111.58, with an average of 17.12 points made per starter. Philadelphia’s projected five average a 114.30 offensive rating and a 114.84 defensive rating, with 20.34 points made per starter. Boston’s starters show a stronger combined offensive and defensive rating edge, while Philly’s group scores slightly more on average.
Final Prediction
Boston’s higher average offensive rating and better defensive rating give them the overall edge and justify the 63.5% pick. Key factor to watch: how Boston’s defense contains Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, since limiting those two will be crucial to holding the expected spread.
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