NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers

Home Team
70.9%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
29.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 21.8 REB 5.3 AST 7.5 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.4 REB 5.0 AST 5.3 3PM 3.2
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.0 REB 5.3 AST 2.4 3PM 2.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.7 REB 9.1 AST 3.9 3PM 1.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.4 REB 8.5 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Toronto Raptors
PTS 7.9 REB 2.8 AST 5.8 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.5 REB 3.5 AST 1.8 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.7 REB 6.2 AST 3.8 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.3 REB 7.0 AST 6.4 3PM 0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.9 REB 6.5 AST 1.7 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
James Harden
OR
121.3
DR
117.0
PTS
20.6
VS
Jamal Shead
OR
111.6
DR
115.4
PTS
6.8
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.8
DR
115.6
PTS
27.5
VS
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
110.9
DR
114.0
PTS
7.8
SF
Max Strus
OR
113.6
DR
119.5
PTS
10.8
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.0
DR
114.7
PTS
19.7
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
120.5
DR
112.4
PTS
18.2
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
116.4
DR
110.4
PTS
18.5
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.8
DR
111.3
PTS
14.8
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.8
DR
110.2
PTS
10.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (70.9% chance). Expected starting fives — Cleveland: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen; Toronto: Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 223.17 combined points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game and an active pace. The expected spread (home − away) is 10.72, giving a double-digit advantage to the home team, which favors Cleveland in this projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.2 Most likely outcome: 223 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Toronto Raptors) 10.7 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Cleveland’s power rating has fallen from 1620.6 to 1592.2 while Toronto’s has risen from 1519.4 to 1547.8 over the last five games.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1592.2 -28.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-01 Toronto Raptors 1592.2 -10.8
2026-04-29 Toronto Raptors 1603.0 +8.1
2026-04-26 Toronto Raptors 1594.9 -11.6
2026-04-23 Toronto Raptors 1606.5 -14.1
2026-04-20 Toronto Raptors 1620.6 —

Toronto Raptors

1547.8 +28.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-01 Cleveland Cavaliers 1547.8 +10.8
2026-04-29 Cleveland Cavaliers 1537.0 -8.0
2026-04-26 Cleveland Cavaliers 1545.0 +11.5
2026-04-23 Cleveland Cavaliers 1533.5 +14.1
2026-04-20 Cleveland Cavaliers 1519.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Cleveland Cavaliers

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 110 112 -2
Toronto Raptors 125 120 +5
Toronto Raptors 89 93 -4
Toronto Raptors 104 126 -22
Toronto Raptors 115 105 +10

Toronto Raptors

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 112 110 +2
Cleveland Cavaliers 120 125 -5
Cleveland Cavaliers 93 89 +4
Cleveland Cavaliers 126 104 +22
Cleveland Cavaliers 105 115 -10

Game Analysis

The last three meetings are tight and alternating: Cleveland lost 110-112, won 125-120, and lost 89-93, while Toronto’s results mirror that split. Those scores show both teams can play close contests and also produce a higher-scoring affair (125-120). Cleveland’s recent form shows a small downward drift in their power rating, while Toronto is on an upswing. Looking at the projected starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 120.8, defensive rating of 115.2, and 18.4 points made per player — led by Donovan Mitchell’s 27.5 and James Harden’s 20.6. Toronto’s starters average an offensive rating of 116.3, defensive rating of 112.9, and 12.6 points made per player — anchored by RJ Barrett (19.7) and Scottie Barnes (18.5) with Jakob Poeltl providing a 127.8 offensive rating and 110.2 defensive rating inside. That edge in starter scoring and overall offense favors Cleveland.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s higher average offensive rating and more consistent scoring from their starters, combined with the projected 10.72-point home edge, give them the advantage. Watch how Toronto’s improvement and Jakob Poeltl’s interior impact match up against Cleveland’s pick-and-roll and rim presence — that matchup will likely decide the game.

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