NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Detroit Pistons
Home Team
80.3%
VS
Orlando Magic
Away Team
19.7%
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HOME Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
27.1
REB
6.2
AST
7.9
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
10.3
REB
7.5
AST
3.6
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
11.2
REB
3.0
AST
1.9
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
17.6
REB
6.4
AST
2.4
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
16.1
REB
10.1
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
Jalen Suggs
PTS
14.3
REB
4.4
AST
5.0
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Desmond Bane
PTS
18.9
REB
4.5
AST
3.1
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jamal Cain
PTS
6.5
REB
3.9
AST
1.4
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Paolo Banchero
PTS
25.0
REB
8.6
AST
5.3
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Wendell Carter Jr.
PTS
10.5
REB
7.7
AST
2.1
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.2
DR
110.0
PTS
24.7
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
106.0
DR
109.0
PTS
13.6
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
113.7
DR
104.3
PTS
9.8
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
118.2
DR
116.0
PTS
20.0
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.9
DR
114.8
PTS
12.1
VS
Jamal Cain
OR
99.8
DR
116.7
PTS
5.3
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
118.9
DR
110.3
PTS
13.9
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
110.6
DR
113.9
PTS
22.4
C
Jalen Duren
OR
130.7
DR
107.8
PTS
18.7
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.5
DR
113.0
PTS
11.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons win — 80.3% probability.
Expected starters — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.
Expected starters — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Jamal Cain, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 214.13 points, signaling a moderately paced game that should produce a fair number of possessions and scoring opportunities. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 9.88, which assigns roughly a 10-point advantage to the home side even though the forecasted winner is Detroit.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
214.1
Most likely outcome: 214 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Orlando Magic)
9.9
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Detroit’s power rating has drifted slightly downward over five games, while Orlando’s has been on the rise.
Detroit Pistons
1652.1
-7.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Orlando Magic | 1652.1 | +9.2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Orlando Magic | 1642.9 | +7.6 |
| 2026-04-27 | Orlando Magic | 1635.3 | -11.9 |
| 2026-04-25 | Orlando Magic | 1647.2 | -12.6 |
| 2026-04-22 | Orlando Magic | 1659.8 | — |
Orlando Magic
1555.1
+7.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Detroit Pistons | 1555.1 | -9.1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Detroit Pistons | 1564.2 | -7.7 |
| 2026-04-27 | Detroit Pistons | 1571.9 | +12.0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Detroit Pistons | 1559.9 | +12.6 |
| 2026-04-22 | Detroit Pistons | 1547.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Detroit Pistons
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 93 | 79 | +14 | |
| Orlando Magic | 116 | 109 | +7 | |
| Orlando Magic | 88 | 94 | -6 | |
| Orlando Magic | 105 | 113 | -8 | |
| Orlando Magic | 98 | 83 | +15 |
Orlando Magic
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 79 | 93 | -14 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 109 | 116 | -7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 94 | 88 | +6 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 113 | 105 | +8 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 83 | 98 | -15 |
Game Analysis
These teams have traded results recently: Detroit is 2-1 against Orlando in the last three meetings (wins 93-79 and 116-109; one loss 88-94). That recent sample favors Detroit, who closed two of those games by controlling the paint and limiting Orlando’s second-chance scoring. Orlando’s wins are scarcer in that stretch, but they showed they can hang around in a tight game when Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. are active.
Looking at the projected starting units, Detroit’s five average an offensive rating of 121.68, a defensive rating of 109.44, and an average points made of 15.84. Orlando’s starters average an offensive rating of 111.42, a defensive rating of 113.72, and 14.60 points made per starter. Detroit’s higher offensive profile and slightly better defensive numbers among the starters help explain the projected edge.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s superior numbers from the projected starting five and the recent 2-1 edge in head-to-head games give them the advantage. Watch the interior matchup—Jalen Duren versus Wendell Carter Jr.—as a decisive factor for rebounding and easy points.
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