NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
80.6%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
19.4%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.3
REB
3.6
AST
6.1
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Josh Hart
PTS
12.6
REB
8.0
AST
5.0
3PM
1.5
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mikal Bridges
PTS
12.1
REB
3.8
AST
3.0
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
17.4
REB
6.9
AST
2.2
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
19.0
REB
12.2
AST
4.3
3PM
1.2
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
26.1
REB
4.9
AST
5.6
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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VJ Edgecombe
PTS
15.7
REB
5.9
AST
3.6
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kelly Oubre Jr.
PTS
13.2
REB
5.7
AST
1.9
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paul George
PTS
17.2
REB
5.3
AST
3.7
3PM
2.6
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Joel Embiid
PTS
28.5
REB
8.7
AST
4.9
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.1
DR
116.1
PTS
26.1
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.9
DR
115.5
PTS
28.1
SG
Josh Hart
OR
118.9
DR
110.5
PTS
11.8
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.8
DR
116.0
PTS
15.9
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
124.4
DR
113.6
PTS
14.1
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
106.9
DR
115.8
PTS
13.5
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
120.6
DR
111.7
PTS
17.1
VS
Paul George
OR
112.8
DR
112.3
PTS
17.3
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
123.9
DR
109.0
PTS
20.0
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
117.5
DR
114.0
PTS
27.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are projected to win (80.6% probability). Expected starting fives — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 230.75 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring, up-tempo game. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 8.49, giving the home team roughly an 8.5-point advantage — in this projection that edge falls on the Knicks.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
230.8
Most likely outcome: 230 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Philadelphia 76ers)
8.5
Most likely outcome: 8 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are rising — the Knicks from 1612.4 to 1637.1 and the 76ers from 1527.0 to 1560.7, with Philadelphia gaining slightly more over the last five games.
New York Knicks
1637.1
+24.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Atlanta Hawks | 1637.1 | +12.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.2 | +10.5 |
| 2026-04-25 | Atlanta Hawks | 1613.7 | +11.7 |
| 2026-04-23 | Atlanta Hawks | 1602.0 | -10.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Atlanta Hawks | 1612.4 | — |
Philadelphia 76ers
1560.7
+33.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Boston Celtics | 1560.7 | +13.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Boston Celtics | 1547.5 | +13.5 |
| 2026-04-28 | Boston Celtics | 1534.0 | +15.4 |
| 2026-04-26 | Boston Celtics | 1518.6 | -8.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Boston Celtics | 1527.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New York Knicks
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 140 | 89 | +51 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 126 | 97 | +29 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 114 | 98 | +16 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 108 | 109 | -1 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 106 | 107 | -1 |
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 109 | 100 | +9 | |
| Boston Celtics | 106 | 93 | +13 | |
| Boston Celtics | 113 | 97 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 96 | 128 | -32 | |
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 108 | -8 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs come in hot: the Knicks are on a three-game win streak (140-89, 126-97, 114-98), showing dominant offense and stingy defense in those outings, while the 76ers have three straight wins over Boston (109-100, 106-93, 113-97), demonstrating consistency against a quality opponent. New York’s recent blowouts point to momentum and depth, while Philadelphia’s wins indicate they’re not folding against tough competition.
Looking at the expected starters, New York’s five average an offensive rating of about 121.8 and a defensive rating of about 112.2 with a combined 89.1 points made, reflecting efficient two-way production. Philadelphia’s projected five average an offensive rating of about 114.2 and a defensive rating of about 114.7 with a combined 101.8 points made, showing high individual scoring from Maxey and Embiid but slightly lower efficiency on offense and defense by these metrics. The Knicks’ higher team power rating (1637.1 vs 1560.7) and balanced efficiency give them the edge.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ combination of higher overall power rating, better average offensive rating (121.8) and tighter defensive numbers (112.2) is why they’re favored. Key factor to watch: the Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Joel Embiid matchup and whether New York can contain Embiid while exploiting their offensive efficiency.
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