NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
66.6%
VS

Minnesota Timberwolves

Away Team
33.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 19.5 REB 3.9 AST 6.4 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.6 REB 5.0 AST 6.8 3PM 1.4
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PTS 14.7 REB 4.5 AST 2.7 3PM 2.2
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.0 REB 5.2 AST 1.7 3PM 2.1
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PTS 23.3 REB 10.7 AST 2.9 3PM 1.4
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 6.1 REB 2.6 AST 3.0 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 24.5 REB 5.4 AST 2.9 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.6 REB 5.3 AST 2.3 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.3 REB 6.9 AST 4.2 3PM 1.4
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PTS 9.2 REB 10.7 AST 1.6 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.5
DR
112.7
PTS
18.7
VS
Mike Conley
OR
116.5
DR
114.4
PTS
4.4
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
116.4
DR
111.3
PTS
16.8
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
115.8
DR
114.8
PTS
28.2
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.1
DR
113.1
PTS
13.8
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.5
DR
114.9
PTS
15.1
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.0
DR
111.3
PTS
11.1
VS
Julius Randle
OR
116.1
DR
113.7
PTS
21.0
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
121.3
DR
99.0
PTS
24.8
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
129.5
DR
109.2
PTS
10.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are projected to win (66.6% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 214.47 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with both offenses capable of scoring but defenses having influence. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.44, giving a large advantage to the home team — San Antonio — and implying a comfortable margin in their favor.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 214.5 Most likely outcome: 214 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Minnesota Timberwolves) 12.4 Most likely outcome: 12 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s rating is slightly rising while Minnesota’s shows a stronger upward move over the last five games.

San Antonio Spurs

1720.7 +2.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-28 Portland Trail Blazers 1720.7 +4.7
2026-04-26 Portland Trail Blazers 1716.0 +6.2
2026-04-24 Portland Trail Blazers 1709.8 +5.9
2026-04-21 Portland Trail Blazers 1703.9 -14.0
2026-04-19 Portland Trail Blazers 1717.9 —

Minnesota Timberwolves

1591.3 +27.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-30 Denver Nuggets 1591.3 +11.8
2026-04-27 Denver Nuggets 1579.5 -9.1
2026-04-25 Denver Nuggets 1588.6 +12.0
2026-04-23 Denver Nuggets 1576.6 +12.8
2026-04-20 Denver Nuggets 1563.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 114 95 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 114 93 +21
Portland Trail Blazers 120 108 +12
Portland Trail Blazers 103 106 -3
Portland Trail Blazers 111 98 +13

Minnesota Timberwolves

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 110 98 +12
Denver Nuggets 113 125 -12
Denver Nuggets 112 96 +16
Denver Nuggets 113 96 +17
Denver Nuggets 119 114 +5

Game Analysis

San Antonio enters on a three-game winning streak over Portland, scoring 114, 114 and 120 while holding opponents to 95, 93 and 108 — a recent defensive stoutness and consistent offense. Minnesota is 2-1 in its last three vs Denver (110-98 win, 113-125 loss, 112-96 win), showing the ability to score in the 110s but a vulnerability in that one loss. Spurs’ recent wins look steady; Timberwolves have been streaky but trending up. Looking at the expected starters, the Spurs average offensive rating is 118.46, defensive rating 109.48, and average points made 17.04 per starter. Minnesota’s starters average offensive rating 118.48, defensive rating 113.40, and average points made 15.88. Offensively the units are nearly even, but San Antonio’s starting five hold a clear edge on defense, largely driven by Victor Wembanyama’s 99.0 defensive rating.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s defensive edge and recent three-game form give them the advantage in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how Wembanyama’s defense and rim presence matches up with Rudy Gobert and whether Minnesota’s offense can overcome that interior resistance.

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