NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Detroit Pistons
Home Team
77.7%
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers
Away Team
22.3%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
28.3
REB
5.9
AST
8.2
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
10.4
REB
7.1
AST
4.0
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
11.9
REB
2.9
AST
1.9
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
18.9
REB
6.3
AST
2.5
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
16.9
REB
10.4
AST
2.1
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
20.3
REB
4.8
AST
6.8
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
24.0
REB
4.4
AST
4.6
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dean Wade
PTS
6.2
REB
4.0
AST
1.7
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
16.8
REB
8.2
AST
3.8
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarrett Allen
PTS
13.3
REB
8.6
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.5
DR
110.0
PTS
24.8
VS
James Harden
OR
121.6
DR
116.5
PTS
20.5
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
114.1
DR
104.3
PTS
9.8
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.7
DR
115.5
PTS
27.5
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.5
DR
114.6
PTS
12.0
VS
Dean Wade
OR
129.3
DR
114.5
PTS
5.8
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
119.3
DR
110.1
PTS
14.1
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
120.3
DR
112.2
PTS
18.2
C
Jalen Duren
OR
130.8
DR
107.8
PTS
18.7
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.8
DR
111.0
PTS
14.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are projected to win this game with a 77.7% probability.
Expected starting fives — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 218.34 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with room for both teams to score in transition and half-court sets. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 7.09, giving the home team roughly a seven-point edge; with Detroit picked to win, that aligns with them being treated as the favored side.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
218.3
Most likely outcome: 218 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Cleveland Cavaliers)
7.1
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Detroit’s power rating has been rising over the last five games (+12.7) while Cleveland’s has dipped slightly (-5.7).
Detroit Pistons
1659.9
+12.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Orlando Magic | 1659.9 | +7.8 |
| 2026-05-01 | Orlando Magic | 1652.1 | +9.2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Orlando Magic | 1642.9 | +7.6 |
| 2026-04-27 | Orlando Magic | 1635.3 | -11.9 |
| 2026-04-25 | Orlando Magic | 1647.2 | — |
Cleveland Cavaliers
1600.8
-5.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Toronto Raptors | 1600.8 | +8.6 |
| 2026-05-01 | Toronto Raptors | 1592.2 | -10.8 |
| 2026-04-29 | Toronto Raptors | 1603.0 | +8.1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Toronto Raptors | 1594.9 | -11.6 |
| 2026-04-23 | Toronto Raptors | 1606.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Detroit Pistons
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 116 | 94 | +22 | |
| Orlando Magic | 93 | 79 | +14 | |
| Orlando Magic | 116 | 109 | +7 | |
| Orlando Magic | 88 | 94 | -6 | |
| Orlando Magic | 105 | 113 | -8 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 114 | 102 | +12 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 110 | 112 | -2 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 125 | 120 | +5 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 89 | 93 | -4 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 104 | 126 | -22 |
Game Analysis
Detroit arrives on a three-game winning streak, all against Orlando (116-94, 93-79, 116-109), showing consistency on both ends. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three against Toronto (114-102, 110-112, 125-120) but looks less stable, with a close loss sandwiched between two wins. Recent results favor Detroit’s momentum and cohesion.
Looking at the projected starting units, Detroit’s five average offensive rating is 121.84 and defensive rating 109.36, with starters averaging 15.88 points apiece. Cleveland’s starters average a higher offensive rating at 123.94 but a worse defensive rating at 113.94, and 17.38 points per starter. That paints Detroit as the stronger defensive unit while Cleveland carries slightly more scoring punch from its top five — a matchup that favors Detroit if they can contain Donovan Mitchell and James Harden.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s upward momentum, defensive edge among starters, and recent streak give them the clear advantage. The key factor to watch: how Detroit’s interior defense (Jalen Duren) and perimeter defenders handle Cleveland’s pick-and-roll combos and isolation scoring from Mitchell and Harden.
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