NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
88.6%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
11.4%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
24.6
REB
3.4
AST
5.8
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Josh Hart
PTS
11.5
REB
7.0
AST
4.6
3PM
1.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Mikal Bridges
PTS
11.8
REB
3.7
AST
2.8
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
16.6
REB
6.0
AST
1.8
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
18.4
REB
11.4
AST
4.2
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
25.3
REB
4.9
AST
5.5
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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VJ Edgecombe
PTS
15.6
REB
5.5
AST
3.4
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kelly Oubre Jr.
PTS
13.1
REB
5.9
AST
2.0
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paul George
PTS
17.2
REB
5.5
AST
3.6
3PM
2.6
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Andre Drummond
PTS
6.5
REB
7.8
AST
1.3
3PM
0.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.6
DR
116.0
PTS
26.2
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.6
DR
115.9
PTS
27.9
SG
Josh Hart
OR
119.1
DR
110.2
PTS
11.8
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.7
DR
116.3
PTS
15.9
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.0
DR
113.6
PTS
14.1
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
107.1
DR
116.2
PTS
13.5
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
121.1
DR
111.6
PTS
17.1
VS
Paul George
OR
113.4
DR
113.0
PTS
17.3
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
124.1
DR
108.9
PTS
19.9
VS
Andre Drummond
OR
117.9
DR
111.7
PTS
6.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are picked to win (88.6% probability).
Expected starting five — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Andre Drummond.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected total is 224.36 points, which points to a fast, high-scoring contest with both teams likely pushing the tempo. The expected spread is 13.07 (home − away), giving the home team a sizable 13-point edge; that margin aligns with the strong lean toward New York.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.4
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Philadelphia 76ers)
13.1
Most likely outcome: 13 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
New York’s ratings climbed from 1602.0 to 1646.3 over five games, while Philadelphia rose to 1560.7 before slipping to 1551.6, indicating stronger recent momentum for the Knicks.
New York Knicks
1646.3
+44.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1646.3 | +9.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Atlanta Hawks | 1637.1 | +12.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.2 | +10.5 |
| 2026-04-25 | Atlanta Hawks | 1613.7 | +11.7 |
| 2026-04-23 | Atlanta Hawks | 1602.0 | — |
Philadelphia 76ers
1551.6
+33.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | New York Knicks | 1551.6 | -9.1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Boston Celtics | 1560.7 | +13.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Boston Celtics | 1547.5 | +13.5 |
| 2026-04-28 | Boston Celtics | 1534.0 | +15.4 |
| 2026-04-26 | Boston Celtics | 1518.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New York Knicks
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 137 | 98 | +39 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 140 | 89 | +51 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 126 | 97 | +29 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 114 | 98 | +16 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 108 | 109 | -1 |
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 98 | 137 | -39 | |
| Boston Celtics | 109 | 100 | +9 | |
| Boston Celtics | 106 | 93 | +13 | |
| Boston Celtics | 113 | 97 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 96 | 128 | -32 |
Game Analysis
New York comes in on a three-game tear — 137-98, 140-89 and 126-97 — combining explosive offense with stifling defense, holding opponents under 100 in each of those wins. Philadelphia has been more up-and-down: two wins over Boston (109-100, 106-93) bookended by a heavy 98-137 loss to New York. That contrast in recent scorelines is stark.
Looking at the expected starting fives, New York’s average offensive rating is about 122.2 with a defensive rating near 112.1 and an average 17.82 points per starter; Philadelphia’s five average offense is about 114.3, defense 114.6 and 16.14 points per starter. New York’s combination of higher offensive efficiency and slightly better defense — plus scoring depth from Jalen Brunson (26.2) and Karl-Anthony Towns (19.9) — creates a clear mismatch.
Final Prediction
New York’s recent form, superior offensive/defensive profile for the projected starters, and larger rating momentum give them the edge. Watch how Brunson and Towns fare against Maxey — their matchup and New York’s ability to sustain offensive efficiency will decide the game.
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