NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
75.0%
VS

Minnesota Timberwolves

Away Team
25.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 19.7 REB 3.6 AST 6.2 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.2 REB 4.7 AST 6.5 3PM 1.5
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PTS 14.6 REB 4.4 AST 2.7 3PM 2.2
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PTS 10.8 REB 5.1 AST 1.6 3PM 2.2
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PTS 22.4 REB 11.4 AST 3.1 3PM 1.4
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AWAY Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 6.6 REB 2.6 AST 3.0 3PM 1.6
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PTS 22.4 REB 4.6 AST 2.9 3PM 2.5
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PTS 15.6 REB 5.2 AST 2.1 3PM 1.1
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PTS 21.4 REB 6.8 AST 4.0 3PM 1.4
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PTS 9.3 REB 10.6 AST 1.7 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.8
DR
112.7
PTS
18.6
VS
Mike Conley
OR
117.4
DR
114.4
PTS
4.5
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.1
DR
111.3
PTS
16.9
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
116.1
DR
114.8
PTS
28.0
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.2
DR
113.0
PTS
13.8
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.4
DR
114.8
PTS
15.1
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.1
DR
111.3
PTS
11.1
VS
Julius Randle
OR
115.8
DR
113.6
PTS
21.0
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.6
DR
98.9
PTS
24.6
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
129.1
DR
109.0
PTS
10.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (75.0% probability). Expected starting fives — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 212.35, signaling a moderate scoring game — not an outright track meet but not a defensive slog either. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.66, a sizable edge for the home side; relative to this projection, San Antonio is modeled as the heavy favorite to cover.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 212.3 Most likely outcome: 212 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Minnesota Timberwolves) 12.7 Most likely outcome: 13 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s rating is relatively stable with a small net gain over five games, while Minnesota’s rating has risen noticeably.

San Antonio Spurs

1708.0 +4.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-04 Minnesota Timberwolves 1708.0 -12.7
2026-04-28 Portland Trail Blazers 1720.7 +4.7
2026-04-26 Portland Trail Blazers 1716.0 +6.2
2026-04-24 Portland Trail Blazers 1709.8 +5.9
2026-04-21 Portland Trail Blazers 1703.9 —

Minnesota Timberwolves

1604.1 +27.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-04 San Antonio Spurs 1604.1 +12.8
2026-04-30 Denver Nuggets 1591.3 +11.8
2026-04-27 Denver Nuggets 1579.5 -9.1
2026-04-25 Denver Nuggets 1588.6 +12.0
2026-04-23 Denver Nuggets 1576.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 102 104 -2
Portland Trail Blazers 114 95 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 114 93 +21
Portland Trail Blazers 120 108 +12
Portland Trail Blazers 103 106 -3

Minnesota Timberwolves

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 104 102 +2
Denver Nuggets 110 98 +12
Denver Nuggets 113 125 -12
Denver Nuggets 112 96 +16
Denver Nuggets 113 96 +17

Game Analysis

San Antonio arrives off two wins over Portland and a two-point loss to Minnesota (102-104), showing they’ve been able to close out lesser opponents and keep games competitive against top teams. Minnesota is 2-1 in the last three, with a 104-102 win over San Antonio and a solid 110-98 victory over Denver before a 113-125 loss, suggesting streaky outcomes against quality opponents. Looking at the expected starting units, the Spurs’ five average an offensive rating of 118.36, a defensive rating of 109.44, and 17.0 average points made per starter — their defense (buoyed by Victor Wembanyama’s 98.9 defensive rating) is the clear strength. The Timberwolves’ projected starters average an offensive rating of 118.56, a defensive rating of 113.32, and 15.84 average points made per starter — Rudy Gobert’s 129.1 offensive rating is a big outlier, but Minnesota concedes more on defense compared to San Antonio.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s defensive edge and balance across the projected starting five are why they’re favored in this projection. Watch the Wembanyama–Gobert matchup and how the Spurs contain Anthony Edwards — that will likely decide whether the Spurs cover the large expected spread.

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