NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder
Home Team
88.9%
VS
Los Angeles Lakers
Away Team
11.1%
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HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
PTS
28.7
REB
4.6
AST
6.5
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ajay Mitchell
PTS
14.6
REB
3.8
AST
3.9
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Luguentz Dort
PTS
6.8
REB
3.2
AST
1.4
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Chet Holmgren
PTS
16.1
REB
8.8
AST
1.6
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Isaiah Hartenstein
PTS
7.8
REB
9.4
AST
2.9
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Los Angeles Lakers
Marcus Smart
PTS
12.3
REB
3.9
AST
4.4
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Austin Reaves
PTS
22.6
REB
4.7
AST
4.8
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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LeBron James
PTS
23.6
REB
6.2
AST
6.7
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Rui Hachimura
PTS
13.0
REB
4.0
AST
1.4
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Deandre Ayton
PTS
12.6
REB
9.6
AST
1.1
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.6
DR
108.2
PTS
31.1
VS
Marcus Smart
OR
106.1
DR
114.4
PTS
9.8
SG
Ajay Mitchell
OR
120.8
DR
107.8
PTS
13.7
VS
Austin Reaves
OR
120.1
DR
117.0
PTS
22.8
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.5
DR
111.3
PTS
8.2
VS
LeBron James
OR
117.7
DR
114.6
PTS
21.2
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
125.7
DR
102.9
PTS
17.2
VS
Rui Hachimura
OR
118.1
DR
118.7
PTS
11.9
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
128.1
DR
102.8
PTS
9.3
VS
Deandre Ayton
OR
124.4
DR
114.1
PTS
12.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (88.9% probability). Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein; Los Angeles Lakers: Marcus Smart, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined total of 217.91 points, indicating a moderately high-scoring game and a fairly lively pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.81, giving a large 12.81-point edge to the home team — a cushion that supports the Thunder pick in this projection.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
217.9
Most likely outcome: 217 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Los Angeles Lakers)
12.8
Most likely outcome: 13 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Oklahoma City’s rating is rising while Los Angeles’s rating is falling over the last five games.
Oklahoma City Thunder
1729.9
+21.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1729.9 | +7.2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Phoenix Suns | 1722.7 | +4.8 |
| 2026-04-25 | Phoenix Suns | 1717.9 | +5.2 |
| 2026-04-22 | Phoenix Suns | 1712.7 | +4.6 |
| 2026-04-19 | Phoenix Suns | 1708.1 | — |
Los Angeles Lakers
1616.5
-20.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1616.5 | -7.2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Houston Rockets | 1623.7 | +11.5 |
| 2026-04-29 | Houston Rockets | 1612.2 | -11.9 |
| 2026-04-26 | Houston Rockets | 1624.1 | -13.1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Houston Rockets | 1637.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Oklahoma City Thunder
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 108 | 90 | +18 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 131 | 122 | +9 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 121 | 109 | +12 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 120 | 107 | +13 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 119 | 84 | +35 |
Los Angeles Lakers
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 90 | 108 | -18 | |
| Houston Rockets | 98 | 78 | +20 | |
| Houston Rockets | 93 | 99 | -6 | |
| Houston Rockets | 96 | 115 | -19 | |
| Houston Rockets | 112 | 108 | +4 |
Game Analysis
Oklahoma City enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak, beating Los Angeles 108-90 and taking two recent games from Phoenix (131-122 and 121-109). The Thunder have clear momentum. The Lakers are 1-2 in their last three, splitting with Houston and losing to Oklahoma City 90-108, signaling some inconsistency on offense and defense in recent outings.
Looking at the expected starters, Oklahoma City’s five combine for an average offensive rating of 123.14 and an average defensive rating of 106.60, with a combined 79.5 points made — led by Shai’s 31.1. Los Angeles’s five average a 117.28 offensive rating and a 115.76 defensive rating, with a combined 78.1 points made. Those numbers show the Thunder hold advantages on both ends in the starters’ aggregate ratings, which should translate into better efficiency if they sustain their recent form.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s rising form, higher starter offensive rating (123.14) and superior defensive rating (106.60) give them a decisive edge. Key factor to watch: whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sustains his scoring and whether Oklahoma City’s starters can keep the Lakers’ offensive ratings in check.
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