NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Team
44.4%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
55.6%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
26.0
REB
5.0
AST
6.1
3PM
2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
VJ Edgecombe
PTS
15.9
REB
5.5
AST
4.1
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Kelly Oubre Jr.
PTS
13.7
REB
5.8
AST
2.3
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paul George
PTS
17.3
REB
5.6
AST
4.2
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Joel Embiid
PTS
27.4
REB
8.3
AST
5.0
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
24.1
REB
3.4
AST
5.7
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
11.0
REB
6.6
AST
4.6
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
12.0
REB
3.8
AST
2.5
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
16.2
REB
5.7
AST
1.6
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
17.9
REB
10.6
AST
4.3
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.2
DR
115.9
PTS
27.9
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.4
DR
116.0
PTS
26.2
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.5
DR
116.3
PTS
15.9
VS
Josh Hart
OR
118.5
DR
110.1
PTS
11.7
SF
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
107.6
DR
116.3
PTS
13.6
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.3
DR
113.6
PTS
14.2
PF
Paul George
OR
113.3
DR
113.0
PTS
17.4
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
121.3
DR
111.5
PTS
17.2
C
Joel Embiid
OR
117.0
DR
114.7
PTS
26.7
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
124.3
DR
108.9
PTS
19.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are favored to win (55.6% probability). Expected starting fives — Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid; New York: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 224.31 points, implying a fairly up-tempo game with both teams able to score. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -1.65, a small margin that gives a narrow edge to the away team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.3
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - New York Knicks)
-1.6
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
The Knicks’ rating has climbed sharply over the last five games while the 76ers have seen only modest gains.
Philadelphia 76ers
1544.8
+10.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | New York Knicks | 1544.8 | -6.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | New York Knicks | 1551.6 | -9.1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Boston Celtics | 1560.7 | +13.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Boston Celtics | 1547.5 | +13.5 |
| 2026-04-28 | Boston Celtics | 1534.0 | — |
New York Knicks
1653.1
+39.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1653.1 | +6.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1646.3 | +9.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Atlanta Hawks | 1637.1 | +12.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.2 | +10.5 |
| 2026-04-25 | Atlanta Hawks | 1613.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
L
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 102 | 108 | -6 | |
| New York Knicks | 98 | 137 | -39 | |
| Boston Celtics | 109 | 100 | +9 | |
| Boston Celtics | 106 | 93 | +13 | |
| Boston Celtics | 113 | 97 | +16 |
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 102 | +6 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 137 | 98 | +39 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 140 | 89 | +51 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 126 | 97 | +29 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 114 | 98 | +16 |
Game Analysis
Recent form favors New York: the Knicks are 3-0 in their last three, including decisive wins (137-98, 140-89) and a 108-102 victory over Philadelphia, while the 76ers are 1-2 with two losses to New York and a win over Boston (109-100). New York’s results show an offense rolling and Philadelphia has been inconsistent, capable of beating good teams but struggling to contain streaky scoring nights.
Looking at the projected starters, Philadelphia’s five average an offensive rating of 114.12, defensive rating of 115.24, and average points made of 20.30 per starter. New York’s five are stronger on paper with an average offensive rating of 122.16, defensive rating of 112.02, and 17.84 points made per starter. That gap in offensive efficiency and slightly better team defense helps explain the Knicks’ edge despite similar scoring profiles.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ recent momentum and the higher combined offensive rating of their projected starters give them the advantage. Watch the interior duel and how Karl-Anthony Towns matches up with Joel Embiid — that battle will likely decide the outcome.
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