NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Minnesota Timberwolves

Home Team
43.2%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
56.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Minnesota Timberwolves
PTS 6.9 REB 3.0 AST 3.7 3PM 1.8
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PTS 25.4 REB 5.7 AST 4.1 3PM 2.8
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PTS 17.0 REB 5.3 AST 3.1 3PM 1.4
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PTS 22.1 REB 7.1 AST 4.5 3PM 1.6
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PTS 10.6 REB 10.7 AST 2.2 3PM 0.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 18.6 REB 3.6 AST 5.8 3PM 1.8
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PTS 17.7 REB 4.6 AST 6.6 3PM 1.2
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PTS 13.2 REB 4.1 AST 2.6 3PM 2.1
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PTS 10.0 REB 5.0 AST 1.6 3PM 2.3
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PTS 23.4 REB 11.6 AST 2.8 3PM 1.6
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Mike Conley
OR
115.4
DR
114.4
PTS
4.4
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.6
DR
112.4
PTS
18.5
SG
Anthony Edwards
OR
115.4
DR
114.9
PTS
27.8
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.9
DR
111.1
PTS
16.9
SF
Jaden McDaniels
OR
114.0
DR
115.0
PTS
15.1
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.2
DR
112.7
PTS
13.8
PF
Julius Randle
OR
115.0
DR
113.7
PTS
20.8
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
121.0
DR
110.9
PTS
11.1
C
Rudy Gobert
OR
128.6
DR
109.2
PTS
10.6
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
121.2
DR
98.6
PTS
24.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are predicted to win (56.8% probability). Expected starting five — Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 222.3 combined points, suggesting a moderately up-tempo game with plenty of scoring opportunities. The expected spread (Home − Away = −3.13) implies about a 3.1-point advantage for the Spurs, giving them the edge on the road or as the favored side in this matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 222.3 Most likely outcome: 222 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - San Antonio Spurs) -3.1 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

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ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show rising momentum over the last five games (Timberwolves +8.8, Spurs +7.7).

Minnesota Timberwolves

1588.3 +8.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-08 San Antonio Spurs 1588.3 -7.2
2026-05-06 San Antonio Spurs 1595.5 -8.6
2026-05-04 San Antonio Spurs 1604.1 +12.8
2026-04-30 Denver Nuggets 1591.3 +11.8
2026-04-27 Denver Nuggets 1579.5 —

San Antonio Spurs

1723.7 +7.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-08 Minnesota Timberwolves 1723.7 +7.2
2026-05-06 Minnesota Timberwolves 1716.5 +8.5
2026-05-04 Minnesota Timberwolves 1708.0 -12.7
2026-04-28 Portland Trail Blazers 1720.7 +4.7
2026-04-26 Portland Trail Blazers 1716.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Minnesota Timberwolves

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 108 115 -7
San Antonio Spurs 95 133 -38
San Antonio Spurs 104 102 +2
Denver Nuggets 110 98 +12
Denver Nuggets 113 125 -12

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 115 108 +7
Minnesota Timberwolves 133 95 +38
Minnesota Timberwolves 102 104 -2
Portland Trail Blazers 114 95 +19
Portland Trail Blazers 114 93 +21

Game Analysis

The recent mini-series favors San Antonio (wins of 115–108 and 133–95) while Minnesota split the three games (one close 104–102 win amid two losses). The Spurs have produced more decisive victories, including a dominant 133–95 outing, whereas Minnesota’s results include a narrow escape and two defeats, indicating inconsistency on offense and defense. Looking at the expected starting units, Minnesota’s five average an offensive rating of 117.68, defensive rating of 113.44, and combine for 78.7 points. San Antonio’s starters average a slightly higher offensive rating of 118.58, a markedly better defensive rating of 109.14, and combine for 85.0 points. That defensive gap—anchored by Victor Wembanyama’s 98.6 defensive rating—plus Spurs’ deeper scoring from the five gives San Antonio the structural advantage despite similar offensive profiles.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s stronger team defense, higher combined scoring from its starters, and clearer recent wins give them the edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: the interior matchup (Wembanyama vs. Gobert) and how it affects both teams’ transition offense and rim protection.

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