NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Team
41.6%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
58.4%
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HOME Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey
PTS
25.3
REB
4.5
AST
6.1
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
VJ Edgecombe
PTS
16.0
REB
5.5
AST
4.2
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kelly Oubre Jr.
PTS
14.6
REB
5.8
AST
2.3
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paul George
PTS
17.4
REB
5.3
AST
4.0
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Joel Embiid
PTS
26.4
REB
8.3
AST
4.7
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
24.7
REB
3.4
AST
6.1
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
11.3
REB
6.6
AST
4.7
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
13.2
REB
3.7
AST
2.6
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
16.0
REB
5.4
AST
1.7
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
17.2
REB
10.7
AST
4.2
3PM
1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.3
DR
116.0
PTS
27.8
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.6
DR
115.9
PTS
26.3
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.5
DR
116.3
PTS
15.8
VS
Josh Hart
OR
118.0
DR
110.1
PTS
11.7
SF
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
108.0
DR
116.3
PTS
13.7
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.6
DR
113.5
PTS
14.3
PF
Paul George
OR
112.6
DR
113.2
PTS
17.3
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
121.3
DR
111.5
PTS
17.2
C
Joel Embiid
OR
116.5
DR
114.8
PTS
26.5
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
124.4
DR
108.8
PTS
19.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are favored to win (58.4% probability).
Expected starting fives — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid; New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 224.28 points, pointing to a reasonably high-scoring game and a fairly brisk pace. The spread (Home - Away = -3.3) implies the home team is about a 3.3-point underdog, giving the away team a modest advantage on the road.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.3
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - New York Knicks)
-3.3
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
The Knicks’ ratings are trending up (+36.8 over five games) while the 76ers are sliding (-10.6), indicating clear momentum for New York.
Philadelphia 76ers
1536.9
-10.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | New York Knicks | 1536.9 | -7.9 |
| 2026-05-06 | New York Knicks | 1544.8 | -6.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | New York Knicks | 1551.6 | -9.1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Boston Celtics | 1560.7 | +13.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Boston Celtics | 1547.5 | — |
New York Knicks
1661.0
+36.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1661.0 | +7.9 |
| 2026-05-06 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1653.1 | +6.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1646.3 | +9.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Atlanta Hawks | 1637.1 | +12.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | Atlanta Hawks | 1624.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Philadelphia 76ers
2-3 in last 5
L
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 94 | 108 | -14 | |
| New York Knicks | 102 | 108 | -6 | |
| New York Knicks | 98 | 137 | -39 | |
| Boston Celtics | 109 | 100 | +9 | |
| Boston Celtics | 106 | 93 | +13 |
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 94 | +14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 102 | +6 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 137 | 98 | +39 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 140 | 89 | +51 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 126 | 97 | +29 |
Game Analysis
The recent form is one-sided: Philadelphia has dropped three straight to New York (scores: 94-108, 102-108, 98-137), while the Knicks have beaten the Sixers in each of those meetings. New York has produced big offensive outputs (including a 137-point game) while Philly has struggled to break 105 in two of the three contests, suggesting the Knicks have out-executed them lately.
Looking at the starters, the 76ers’ five average an offensive rating of 113.98, a defensive rating of 115.32, and average points made per starter of 20.22. The Knicks’ projected five average an offensive rating of 122.18, a defensive rating of 111.96, and average points made per starter of 17.86. New York’s higher offensive efficiency and stronger team defense profile give them an edge, even though Philadelphia gets heavy scoring from Maxey and Embiid.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ rising form, superior offensive rating (122.18 vs. 113.98) and tighter defensive numbers make them the pick. Watch the frontcourt matchup—Joel Embiid vs. Karl-Anthony Towns—and how New York defends Maxey; that battle will likely decide the margin.
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