NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
67.9%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
32.1%
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HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
20.2
REB
4.7
AST
7.0
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
25.9
REB
4.5
AST
5.0
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dean Wade
PTS
6.1
REB
3.8
AST
1.7
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
16.2
REB
7.6
AST
4.2
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarrett Allen
PTS
14.8
REB
7.8
AST
2.3
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
25.4
REB
5.4
AST
7.8
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
9.0
REB
6.1
AST
3.4
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
11.5
REB
3.1
AST
1.8
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
16.8
REB
5.8
AST
1.8
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
15.7
REB
9.8
AST
1.8
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
119.6
DR
116.6
PTS
20.2
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
119.1
DR
110.3
PTS
24.8
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.4
DR
115.6
PTS
27.5
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
115.0
DR
104.6
PTS
9.8
SF
Dean Wade
OR
129.2
DR
114.9
PTS
5.8
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.6
DR
114.5
PTS
12.2
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
120.3
DR
112.4
PTS
17.9
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
119.6
DR
110.2
PTS
14.4
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.5
DR
111.3
PTS
14.9
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
129.7
DR
108.0
PTS
18.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win (67.9% probability).
Expected starting five — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen. Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 217.72 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with room for both teams to score in transition and in the halfcourt. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 2.53, giving the home team a 2.53-point edge; overall the projection favors Cleveland.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
217.7
Most likely outcome: 217 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Detroit Pistons)
2.5
Most likely outcome: 2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Cleveland’s power has ticked up modestly (+4.8 over five games) while Detroit has shown a larger rise (+11.6 over five games).
Cleveland Cavaliers
1597.0
+4.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Detroit Pistons | 1597.0 | +12.1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Detroit Pistons | 1584.9 | -7.7 |
| 2026-05-05 | Detroit Pistons | 1592.6 | -8.2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Toronto Raptors | 1600.8 | +8.6 |
| 2026-05-01 | Toronto Raptors | 1592.2 | — |
Detroit Pistons
1663.7
+11.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1663.7 | -12.0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1675.7 | +7.7 |
| 2026-05-05 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1668.0 | +8.1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Orlando Magic | 1659.9 | +7.8 |
| 2026-05-01 | Orlando Magic | 1652.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 116 | 109 | +7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 97 | 107 | -10 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 101 | 111 | -10 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 114 | 102 | +12 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 110 | 112 | -2 |
Detroit Pistons
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 116 | -7 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 107 | 97 | +10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 111 | 101 | +10 | |
| Orlando Magic | 116 | 94 | +22 | |
| Orlando Magic | 93 | 79 | +14 |
Game Analysis
These teams have split the last three meetings: Cleveland won the most recent 116-109 but lost the two prior games 97-107 and 101-111. Cleveland’s recent form is 1-2 in this mini-series, while Detroit is 2-1, indicating a competitive matchup with momentum swinging back and forth.
Looking at the projected starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 123.4, a defensive rating of 114.16, and 17.26 average points made per starter. Detroit’s projected five average an offensive rating of 122.0, a stronger defensive rating of 109.52, and 15.92 average points made per starter. That points to Cleveland having a slight offensive edge and more balanced scoring, while Detroit holds an edge on the defensive end, particularly in team defensive ratings.
Final Prediction
Cleveland gets the nod because of a marginally superior offensive profile and more balanced scoring from its starting five, plus the recent 116-109 win. The matchup to watch is the interior battle — Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley versus Jalen Duren — and whether Detroit’s defense can limit Cleveland’s balanced attack.
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