NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Detroit Pistons

Home Team
70.0%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
30.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Detroit Pistons
PTS 25.6 REB 5.5 AST 8.2 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.5 REB 6.5 AST 3.4 3PM 0.1
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.3 REB 3.1 AST 1.9 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.4 REB 6.3 AST 2.3 3PM 1.4
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.6 REB 10.1 AST 2.0 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 20.1 REB 4.2 AST 6.8 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.6 REB 4.5 AST 4.8 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 5.1 REB 3.7 AST 1.6 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.3 REB 7.4 AST 3.9 3PM 0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.1 REB 7.8 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
118.9
DR
110.5
PTS
24.7
VS
James Harden
OR
120.5
DR
116.5
PTS
20.4
SG
Ausar Thompson
OR
114.3
DR
104.8
PTS
9.7
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.7
DR
115.6
PTS
27.7
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.4
DR
114.7
PTS
12.1
VS
Dean Wade
OR
128.2
DR
114.9
PTS
5.7
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
119.6
DR
110.3
PTS
14.4
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
120.5
DR
112.2
PTS
17.9
C
Jalen Duren
OR
129.1
DR
108.2
PTS
18.2
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.4
DR
111.4
PTS
14.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Detroit Pistons to win (70.0% probability). Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 214.79 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with both teams able to score but not an all-out track meet. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 6.14, giving the home team a 6.14-point edge; given our pick for Detroit, that either implies Detroit is favored at home or will need to overcome that margin if they’re the visitor.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 214.8 Most likely outcome: 214 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Cleveland Cavaliers) 6.1 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Detroit’s rating has dipped over the last five games (net -8.1) while Cleveland’s has climbed (net +8.1), indicating opposite momentum directions.

Detroit Pistons

1651.8 -8.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-11 Cleveland Cavaliers 1651.8 -11.9
2026-05-09 Cleveland Cavaliers 1663.7 -12.0
2026-05-07 Cleveland Cavaliers 1675.7 +7.7
2026-05-05 Cleveland Cavaliers 1668.0 +8.1
2026-05-03 Orlando Magic 1659.9 —

Cleveland Cavaliers

1608.9 +8.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-11 Detroit Pistons 1608.9 +11.9
2026-05-09 Detroit Pistons 1597.0 +12.1
2026-05-07 Detroit Pistons 1584.9 -7.7
2026-05-05 Detroit Pistons 1592.6 -8.2
2026-05-03 Toronto Raptors 1600.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Detroit Pistons

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 103 112 -9
Cleveland Cavaliers 109 116 -7
Cleveland Cavaliers 107 97 +10
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 101 +10
Orlando Magic 116 94 +22

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Detroit Pistons 112 103 +9
Detroit Pistons 116 109 +7
Detroit Pistons 97 107 -10
Detroit Pistons 101 111 -10
Toronto Raptors 114 102 +12

Game Analysis

The recent sample is tightly intertwined: Detroit lost two meetings 103-112 and 109-116 before beating Cleveland 107-97 in the most recent trio. Cleveland won the two earlier matchups (112-103, 116-109) before dropping the last meeting. That back-and-forth suggests familiarity and adjustments will matter more than raw form. Looking at starting-five profiles, Detroit’s starters average an offensive rating of about 121.7, defensive rating near 109.7, and average points made per starter of 15.8. Cleveland’s starters average an offensive rating around 123.5, defensive rating about 114.1, and average points made per starter of 17.3. Cleveland brings slightly higher offensive firepower, but Detroit’s starting unit has the clearer edge on defense, which could suppress Cleveland’s scoring balance.

Final Prediction

Detroit gets the nod because their starting five combines strong individual ratings and a defensive advantage that can disrupt Cleveland’s scorers. Key factor to watch: how Detroit defends Donovan Mitchell and James Harden while Jalen Duren battles Jarrett Allen/Evan Mobley inside.

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