NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers
Home Team
67.1%
VS
Detroit Pistons
Away Team
32.9%
Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
21.4
REB
4.5
AST
7.3
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
27.0
REB
4.7
AST
5.2
3PM
2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Dean Wade
PTS
5.0
REB
4.0
AST
1.8
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
16.3
REB
7.8
AST
4.5
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarrett Allen
PTS
13.8
REB
7.5
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham
PTS
25.4
REB
5.7
AST
7.9
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ausar Thompson
PTS
9.5
REB
6.6
AST
3.4
3PM
0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Duncan Robinson
PTS
10.9
REB
3.0
AST
1.9
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tobias Harris
PTS
16.2
REB
6.0
AST
2.3
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jalen Duren
PTS
15.5
REB
9.3
AST
2.0
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
James Harden
OR
120.2
DR
116.5
PTS
20.6
VS
Cade Cunningham
OR
118.9
DR
110.6
PTS
24.9
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.6
DR
115.7
PTS
27.6
VS
Ausar Thompson
OR
114.3
DR
104.8
PTS
9.7
SF
Dean Wade
OR
129.6
DR
114.9
PTS
5.6
VS
Duncan Robinson
OR
126.4
DR
114.7
PTS
12.1
PF
Evan Mobley
OR
120.5
DR
112.2
PTS
17.9
VS
Tobias Harris
OR
119.2
DR
110.5
PTS
14.4
C
Jarrett Allen
OR
128.7
DR
111.5
PTS
14.8
VS
Jalen Duren
OR
129.5
DR
108.3
PTS
18.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers to win (67.1% probability).
Expected starting five — Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.
Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 220.44 points, suggesting a moderately fast game with both teams capable of scoring in transition and in the half-court.
The expected spread (home - away) is 2.85 points, which gives a slim roughly 3-point edge to whatever team is listed as the home side.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
220.4
Most likely outcome: 220 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Detroit Pistons)
2.9
Most likely outcome: 2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Cleveland’s power rating has been rising (1592.6 → 1620.6) while Detroit’s has been sliding (1668.0 → 1640.0).
Cleveland Cavaliers
1620.6
+28.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Detroit Pistons | 1620.6 | +11.7 |
| 2026-05-11 | Detroit Pistons | 1608.9 | +11.9 |
| 2026-05-09 | Detroit Pistons | 1597.0 | +12.1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Detroit Pistons | 1584.9 | -7.7 |
| 2026-05-05 | Detroit Pistons | 1592.6 | — |
Detroit Pistons
1640.0
-28.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1640.0 | -11.8 |
| 2026-05-11 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1651.8 | -11.9 |
| 2026-05-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1663.7 | -12.0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1675.7 | +7.7 |
| 2026-05-05 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1668.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Cleveland Cavaliers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 117 | 113 | +4 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 112 | 103 | +9 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 116 | 109 | +7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 97 | 107 | -10 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 101 | 111 | -10 |
Detroit Pistons
2-3 in last 5
L
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 113 | 117 | -4 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 103 | 112 | -9 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 116 | -7 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 107 | 97 | +10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 111 | 101 | +10 |
Game Analysis
Cleveland enters having beaten Detroit in each of the last three meetings (117-113, 112-103, 116-109), with winning margins of 4, 9 and 7 points; those games averaged 223.3 combined points, in line with the 220.44 expectation. Detroit has dropped those three matchups, and the scores show Cleveland consistently putting up 112–117 points while Detroit has ranged 103–113.
Looking at the expected starters, Cleveland’s five average an offensive rating of 123.72, a defensive rating of 114.16, and 17.30 average points made per starter — a potent offensive group. Detroit’s projected five average an offensive rating of 121.66, a defensive rating of 109.78, and 15.84 points made per starter — slightly less scoring but better defense on paper. That mix suggests Cleveland’s offense versus Detroit’s defense will be the deciding chess match, with interior play from Jarrett Allen and Jalen Duren and perimeter creation from Harden/Mitchell and Cade Cunningham central to the outcome.
Final Prediction
Cleveland’s recent wins and stronger scoring profile give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how Detroit defends the paint and whether Cleveland’s ball handlers can consistently create high-percentage looks — that matchup will decide if the Cavs cover and close out the win.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel