NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
70.2%
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers
Away Team
29.8%
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HOME New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson
PTS
25.4
REB
3.6
AST
6.5
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Josh Hart
PTS
12.0
REB
7.3
AST
4.9
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Mikal Bridges
PTS
14.2
REB
4.1
AST
3.4
3PM
1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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OG Anunoby
PTS
17.6
REB
5.6
AST
2.1
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Karl-Anthony Towns
PTS
18.2
REB
10.5
AST
4.8
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
20.7
REB
4.3
AST
6.9
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Donovan Mitchell
PTS
26.2
REB
4.5
AST
5.2
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Max Strus
PTS
10.0
REB
4.5
AST
1.9
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Evan Mobley
PTS
17.1
REB
7.9
AST
4.1
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jarrett Allen
PTS
14.5
REB
7.2
AST
1.7
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Brunson
OR
122.1
DR
116.0
PTS
26.2
VS
James Harden
OR
119.0
DR
116.0
PTS
20.4
SG
Josh Hart
OR
118.5
DR
110.1
PTS
11.8
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
119.4
DR
115.6
PTS
27.5
SF
Mikal Bridges
OR
125.8
DR
113.4
PTS
14.2
VS
Max Strus
OR
114.3
DR
117.1
PTS
10.6
PF
OG Anunoby
OR
121.3
DR
111.5
PTS
17.2
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
120.4
DR
112.0
PTS
17.9
C
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
125.1
DR
108.8
PTS
19.7
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
129.0
DR
111.4
PTS
14.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
New York Knicks are the pick to win (70.2% probability).
Expected starting fives — New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 227.27 points, signaling a game with a solid offensive tilt and a fairly brisk pace.
The expected spread is Home - Away = 10.07, giving the home side roughly a 10-point edge — the Knicks are favored comfortably on that line.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
227.3
Most likely outcome: 227 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Cleveland Cavaliers)
10.1
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
New York’s power rating has climbed from 1637.1 to 1669.5 over five games, slightly outpacing Cleveland’s rise from 1597.0 to 1623.4.
New York Knicks
1669.5
+32.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1669.5 | +8.5 |
| 2026-05-08 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1661.0 | +7.9 |
| 2026-05-06 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1653.1 | +6.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1646.3 | +9.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Atlanta Hawks | 1637.1 | — |
Cleveland Cavaliers
1623.4
+26.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Detroit Pistons | 1623.4 | +14.8 |
| 2026-05-15 | Detroit Pistons | 1608.6 | -12.0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Detroit Pistons | 1620.6 | +11.7 |
| 2026-05-11 | Detroit Pistons | 1608.9 | +11.9 |
| 2026-05-09 | Detroit Pistons | 1597.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New York Knicks
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 144 | 114 | +30 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 94 | +14 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 108 | 102 | +6 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 137 | 98 | +39 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 140 | 89 | +51 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 125 | 94 | +31 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 94 | 115 | -21 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 117 | 113 | +4 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 112 | 103 | +9 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 116 | 109 | +7 |
Game Analysis
The Knicks come in on a three-game winning streak against Philadelphia (144-114, 108-94, 108-102), showing sustained scoring punch and consistency. Cleveland has been streaky against Detroit (wins 125-94, 117-113; loss 94-115), mixing blowouts with a lopsided defeat, which hints at uneven performances. Recent results favor New York’s momentum and offensive continuity.
Looking at the expected fives: New York’s five-man averages are an offensive rating of 122.56 and a defensive rating of 111.96, with the group averaging 17.8 points each (total 89.1). Cleveland’s five average offensive rating is 120.42, defensive 114.42, and 18.3 points each on average (total 91.3). The Knicks boast a slight edge in team offense efficiency and a clearer advantage on defense, while Cleveland’s starters collectively score a touch more.
Final Prediction
New York’s recent form, higher net efficiency across the projected starters, and rising power rating give them the edge. Watch whether Cleveland can disrupt New York’s balance — if the Cavs fail to slow the Knicks’ efficiency, the projected gap will hold.
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