NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
73.8%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
26.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 27.7 REB 4.5 AST 6.2 3PM 1.4
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PTS 20.9 REB 5.6 AST 4.7 3PM 0.9
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PTS 6.8 REB 3.5 AST 1.3 3PM 1.8
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PTS 16.2 REB 8.7 AST 1.4 3PM 1.0
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PTS 7.4 REB 9.0 AST 2.8 3PM 0.0
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AWAY San Antonio Spurs
PTS 18.6 REB 3.6 AST 5.2 3PM 1.8
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PTS 18.3 REB 5.2 AST 6.3 3PM 1.3
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PTS 12.8 REB 4.0 AST 2.1 3PM 2.3
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PTS 10.7 REB 5.3 AST 1.5 3PM 2.5
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PTS 23.9 REB 11.0 AST 2.5 3PM 1.5
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
134.6
DR
108.6
PTS
30.8
VS
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.3
DR
112.3
PTS
18.6
SG
Jalen Williams
OR
118.7
DR
110.1
PTS
17.5
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
117.1
DR
110.8
PTS
17.1
SF
Luguentz Dort
OR
106.0
DR
111.7
PTS
8.1
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.3
DR
112.5
PTS
13.7
PF
Chet Holmgren
OR
125.9
DR
103.3
PTS
17.2
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
121.0
DR
110.6
PTS
11.1
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
127.4
DR
102.9
PTS
9.2
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.7
DR
98.7
PTS
24.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

I’m backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to win — probability 73.8%. Expected starting five — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein; San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model pegs the game total at 219.69 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring affair and a brisk pace on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 5.93, which translates to about a 5.9-point edge for the home team — that margin aligns with Oklahoma City being the projected favorite.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 219.7 Most likely outcome: 219 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - San Antonio Spurs) 5.9 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Over the last five games Oklahoma City’s power rating moved from 1729.9 to 1739.6 (up modestly), while San Antonio climbed from 1723.7 to 1738.8 (stronger upward momentum).

Oklahoma City Thunder

1739.6 +9.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-18 San Antonio Spurs 1739.6 -11.6
2026-05-11 Los Angeles Lakers 1751.2 +6.3
2026-05-09 Los Angeles Lakers 1744.9 +8.0
2026-05-07 Los Angeles Lakers 1736.9 +7.0
2026-05-05 Los Angeles Lakers 1729.9 —

San Antonio Spurs

1738.8 +15.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-18 Oklahoma City Thunder 1738.8 +11.5
2026-05-15 Minnesota Timberwolves 1727.3 +8.5
2026-05-12 Minnesota Timberwolves 1718.8 +7.7
2026-05-10 Minnesota Timberwolves 1711.1 -12.6
2026-05-08 Minnesota Timberwolves 1723.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 115 122 -7
Los Angeles Lakers 115 110 +5
Los Angeles Lakers 131 108 +23
Los Angeles Lakers 125 107 +18
Los Angeles Lakers 108 90 +18

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 122 115 +7
Minnesota Timberwolves 139 109 +30
Minnesota Timberwolves 126 97 +29
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 114 -5
Minnesota Timberwolves 115 108 +7

Game Analysis

San Antonio enters hotter, riding a three-game win streak that includes a 122-115 win over Oklahoma City and back-to-back blowouts of Minnesota (139-109, 126-97). The Spurs look confident offensively right now. Oklahoma City is 2-1 in its last three with consecutive wins over the Lakers (115-110, 131-108) but dropped the most recent meeting to San Antonio. Looking at the projected starters, Oklahoma City’s five average an offensive rating of 122.5 and a defensive rating of 107.3 with an average 16.6 points made per starter; San Antonio’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.7 and a defensive rating of 109.0 with 17.0 points made per starter. That edge on both offense and defense for the Thunder — plus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 30.8 scoring average and the interior presence of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — tilts the matchup.

Final Prediction

OKC’s combined offensive punch and stronger defensive profile give them the edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: how Oklahoma City’s bigs contend with Victor Wembanyama and whether Shai can force San Antonio to adjust.

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