NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
64.6%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
35.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME San Antonio Spurs
PTS 19.5 REB 3.9 AST 5.8 3PM 1.8
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.6 REB 5.5 AST 6.9 3PM 1.4
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PTS 13.8 REB 4.1 AST 2.4 3PM 2.6
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PTS 11.8 REB 5.3 AST 1.7 3PM 2.5
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PTS 23.9 REB 11.3 AST 3.2 3PM 1.5
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AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 27.4 REB 4.3 AST 6.0 3PM 1.4
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PTS 16.2 REB 4.3 AST 3.5 3PM 0.7
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PTS 6.6 REB 3.4 AST 1.1 3PM 1.7
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PTS 14.7 REB 7.8 AST 1.3 3PM 1.0
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PTS 7.5 REB 8.8 AST 2.5 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.3
DR
112.3
PTS
18.6
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
134.6
DR
108.8
PTS
30.8
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.0
DR
111.1
PTS
17.2
VS
Jalen Williams
OR
118.4
DR
109.6
PTS
17.1
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
116.7
DR
112.7
PTS
13.8
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
106.5
DR
111.9
PTS
8.1
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.9
DR
110.8
PTS
11.1
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
125.9
DR
103.6
PTS
17.1
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.8
DR
99.0
PTS
24.5
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
127.2
DR
103.3
PTS
9.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are projected to win (64.6% probability). Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 216.7 points, suggesting a game with a fair amount of scoring and an uptempo look rather than a slow defensive slog. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 3.02, favoring the home team by about three points; despite that, the projection still leans toward the Spurs as the likely winner.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 216.7 Most likely outcome: 216 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Oklahoma City Thunder) 3.0 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams have rising power ratings over the last five games: San Antonio +17.9 and Oklahoma City +12.6, indicating positive momentum for each.

San Antonio Spurs

1729.0 +17.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-20 Oklahoma City Thunder 1729.0 -9.8
2026-05-18 Oklahoma City Thunder 1738.8 +11.5
2026-05-15 Minnesota Timberwolves 1727.3 +8.5
2026-05-12 Minnesota Timberwolves 1718.8 +7.7
2026-05-10 Minnesota Timberwolves 1711.1 —

Oklahoma City Thunder

1749.5 +12.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-05-20 San Antonio Spurs 1749.5 +9.9
2026-05-18 San Antonio Spurs 1739.6 -11.6
2026-05-11 Los Angeles Lakers 1751.2 +6.3
2026-05-09 Los Angeles Lakers 1744.9 +8.0
2026-05-07 Los Angeles Lakers 1736.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Oklahoma City Thunder 113 122 -9
Oklahoma City Thunder 122 115 +7
Minnesota Timberwolves 139 109 +30
Minnesota Timberwolves 126 97 +29
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 114 -5

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 122 113 +9
San Antonio Spurs 115 122 -7
Los Angeles Lakers 115 110 +5
Los Angeles Lakers 131 108 +23
Los Angeles Lakers 125 107 +18

Game Analysis

Over the last three games San Antonio is 2-1 (loss 113-122, then wins 122-115 and 139-109), showing a burst of offensive output punctuated by the 139-point outburst. Oklahoma City is also 2-1 (win 122-113, loss 115-122, win 115-110), demonstrating consistency led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The two teams have traded results recently, so matchup adjustments will be decisive. Looking at the projected starters, San Antonio’s five average offensive rating is 118.74, defensive rating 109.18, and average points made 17.04. Oklahoma City’s starters average offensive rating 122.52, defensive rating 107.44, and average points made 16.46. Oklahoma City brings a higher collective offensive rating driven by Shai’s 134.6, but San Antonio counters with Victor Wembanyama’s elite defensive rating of 99.0 and balanced scoring from multiple players.

Final Prediction

The Spurs get the edge because of upward momentum in team ratings, Wembanyama’s two-way impact, and a recent offensive spike. Key factor to watch: how well San Antonio contains Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — if they slow him, the Spurs’ projection holds.

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