NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
63.2%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
36.8%
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HOME San Antonio Spurs
De'Aaron Fox
PTS
18.2
REB
3.9
AST
6.2
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
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Stephon Castle
PTS
19.7
REB
5.5
AST
7.1
3PM
1.3
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Devin Vassell
PTS
14.4
REB
4.2
AST
2.4
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
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Julian Champagnie
PTS
11.8
REB
5.2
AST
1.7
3PM
2.5
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Victor Wembanyama
PTS
25.1
REB
11.4
AST
3.5
3PM
1.6
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AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
PTS
28.5
REB
4.3
AST
6.5
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
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Jalen Williams
PTS
16.9
REB
4.3
AST
3.7
3PM
0.7
Distribution (PDF)
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Luguentz Dort
PTS
6.2
REB
3.5
AST
1.2
3PM
1.7
Distribution (PDF)
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Chet Holmgren
PTS
14.6
REB
7.3
AST
1.2
3PM
0.9
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Isaiah Hartenstein
PTS
7.7
REB
8.8
AST
2.8
3PM
0.0
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
118.0
DR
112.4
PTS
18.5
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
134.6
DR
108.9
PTS
30.8
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
117.1
DR
111.3
PTS
17.1
VS
Jalen Williams
OR
118.4
DR
109.6
PTS
17.1
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
117.1
DR
112.8
PTS
13.9
VS
Luguentz Dort
OR
106.4
DR
111.9
PTS
8.0
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
120.8
DR
110.9
PTS
11.0
VS
Chet Holmgren
OR
126.4
DR
103.8
PTS
17.1
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
120.8
DR
99.3
PTS
24.6
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
126.7
DR
103.4
PTS
9.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (63.2% probability).
Expected starting fives — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 218.13 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with scoring from both wings and inside presence. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 4.25 points in favor of the home team — if the Spurs are the home side, that margin supports our Spurs pick and gives them a clear edge in a close matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
218.1
Most likely outcome: 218 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Oklahoma City Thunder)
4.2
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
San Antonio’s power rating has been slightly down over the last five games while Oklahoma City’s has been on a noticeable rise.
San Antonio Spurs
1718.0
-0.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1718.0 | -11.0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1729.0 | -9.8 |
| 2026-05-18 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1738.8 | +11.5 |
| 2026-05-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1727.3 | +8.5 |
| 2026-05-12 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1718.8 | — |
Oklahoma City Thunder
1760.5
+15.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | San Antonio Spurs | 1760.5 | +11.0 |
| 2026-05-20 | San Antonio Spurs | 1749.5 | +9.9 |
| 2026-05-18 | San Antonio Spurs | 1739.6 | -11.6 |
| 2026-05-11 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1751.2 | +6.3 |
| 2026-05-09 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1744.9 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
San Antonio Spurs
3-2 in last 5
L
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 108 | 123 | -15 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 113 | 122 | -9 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 122 | 115 | +7 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 139 | 109 | +30 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 126 | 97 | +29 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 123 | 108 | +15 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 122 | 113 | +9 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 115 | 122 | -7 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 115 | 110 | +5 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 131 | 108 | +23 |
Game Analysis
These two teams have traded wins recently: San Antonio lost 108-123 and 113-122 to OKC, but beat them 122-115 in the most recent meeting. Oklahoma City has won two of the last three head-to-head matchups, giving them momentum in the short series. The Thunder’s recent results and rising power rating (+15.6 over five games) indicate they’ve tightened up lately.
Looking at the expected starters, the Spurs’ five average an offensive rating of 118.76 and a defensive rating of 109.34, with an average 17.02 points made per starter. The Thunder’s starting five average an offensive rating of 122.50 and a defensive rating of 107.52, with 16.42 points made per starter. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.8 PPG, ORtg 134.6) is the Thunder’s primary scoring engine, while Victor Wembanyama (24.6 PPG, DRtg 99.3) is San Antonio’s two-way cornerstone — those individual matchups will be decisive.
Final Prediction
The Spurs get the nod largely because of Wembanyama’s impact and a slightly more balanced scoring distribution among starters, paired with the 4.25-point home-leaning spread. Key factor to watch: how effectively the Spurs contain Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and whether Wembanyama can alter OKC’s interior and transition opportunities.
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